Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The latest storm system which brought all the high wind to western
Kansas yesterday continued to push away from the Central Plains,
leaving in its wake broad, fairly weak surface ridging. An overall
weak pressure gradient will result in continued light surface winds
today, although by late afternoon, the western portions of southwest
Kansas will see winds increasing to around 15 to 20 mph as the next
leeside trough develops. Overall, a very pleasant day is forecast as
temperatures warm into the 60s (close to 70 at Elkhart and Liberal)
with only a few high cirrus clouds around. Tonight, southeast winds
will persist as the leeside trough remains in place as the next
upper level storm system approaches the Desert Southwest.
Temperatures will likely bottom out in the lower to mid 30s for lows
as surface winds keep the boundary layer mixed just enough.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Clearly, the focus of this Long Term period is at the beginning --
Sunday Night into Monday -- as a fast-moving, yet vigorous upper low
develops and tracks just south of Southwest Kansas (ECMWF and
Canadian models). The GFS continues to remain farther north with the
500mb and surface low tracks, which would keep moderate/heavy
precipitation across the northern half of Kansas. While the ECMWF
continues to hold on to its southern solution, it has sped up its
movement of the cyclone. This obviously does not bode well for heavy
precipitation accumulations. In fact, the ECMWF QPF values have
dropped quite a bit over a good portion of southwest Kansas as a
result, although still greater than any other storm we have had all
winter and even much of last fall! The official QPF forecast
continues to call for an end of this horrendously long stretch of
days of less than 1/10 of an inch of moisture (dating back to
October 6th). There is still the possibility of a severe storm or
two late Sunday evening/Sunday night, mainly east/southeast of DDC,
especially if the southern track of the mid level cyclone is
preferred. At this time, it does not appear as if any snow will
occur, as once 850mb temperatures fall to below zero Celsius,
precipitation will be coming to an end. Very strong north/northwest
winds are likely behind the low during the day Monday. Monday
overall just looks to be a very foul weather day around southwest
Kansas with strong winds, light rain, and temperatures in the 40s.
Beyond Monday, we will start to see an increase in temperatures to
the 50s on Tuesday, 60s on Wednesday, and eventually 70s by Thursday
as a longwave ridge amplifies across the Rockies and adjacent
Western Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Aviation weather will be rather quiet through this forecast
period. Light winds less than 10 knots will occur through early
afternoon, but southeast winds will increase to 12 knots or
greater at LBL and GCK by early to mid afternoon. DDC will see
these stronger southeast winds later in the evening.


DDC  66  37  67  38 /   0   0  20  70
GCK  66  35  70  36 /   0   0  10  60
EHA  69  36  69  35 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  67  36  71  37 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  60  34  64  39 /   0   0  20  90
P28  65  37  63  41 /   0   0  30  80




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.