Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The intense cyclone that is causing the very strong wind today is
moving east and will enter Missouri late tonight. As this system
moves east this afternoon and evening, our wind will gradually
start to decrease to where after 10-11pm, wind should be under
10-15 mph throughout Southwest Kansas, and will remain light
through the morning. Wind this afternoon along a Garden
City/Dodge City/Pratt line has been flowing at 30-40 mph
sustained, with gusts to 60 mph this afternoon, which lines up
well today`s high wind warning. Though wind throughout all of
Southwest Kansas has been very strong. Hang in there. Tomorrow
will be better.

Temperatures tonight will bottom out below freezing behind the
cold front due to light wind and clear skies. Saturday high
pressure begins to move in, keeping wind light through the day. As
a low in eastern Colorado begins to deepen late in the day, wind
will flip south, allowing temperatures to warm into the 60s when
all is said and done on Saturday. Wind toward the Colorado border
will gust to 20-25 mph due to the increased pressure gradient in
the afternoon. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to transport
toward the Central Plains on Saturday, ahead of the next storm system
on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The GFS, ECMWF and the NAM all have had good agreement of a mid-
level closed low moving south of Western Kansas and attendant
surface low moving through or below our CWA Sunday night into
Monday. This system appears to have enough forcing despite the
moderate moisture available to provide the first good
precipitation event of the year for a lot of our region. However,
there is a variance in how much moisture we may receive due to
the storm track. Regardless, we`ll take any precipitation we can
get at this point.

Monday morning and Monday, wind will be very strong behind the
cold front. Put a blend of models in the forecast, however the
forecast winds may still not be high enough. Temperatures will be
cooler on Monday and Tuesday: 40s/50s.

Wednesday, warm air advection sets in and begins a warm up for the
rest of the week. Thursday and Friday look to reach into the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

With surface high pressure in control through this TAF period,
winds will remain light at less than 10 knots for the most part.
Winds will eventually become southeasterly again, increasing to 10
to 13 knots at LBL and GCK by Saturday evening. MVFR ceiling will
hold on at HYS through about 09-10Z before scattering out as the
storm system continues to pull away from Kansas.


Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 pm today due to high wind
and low relative humidities at 15-20 percent, especially in far
Southwest Kansas. Saturday afternoon, counties along the Colorado
border will drop into 20 percent relative humidity with wind at
20 mph. Have held off a watch at this time. Sunday afternoon, wind
will be stronger and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range
toward the Colorado border, however have held off on a watch for
now in the event of precipitation occurring.


DDC  27  66  37  68 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  26  66  35  70 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  28  69  36  70 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  29  67  36  72 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  25  60  34  65 /   0   0   0  20
P28  33  65  37  65 /   0   0   0  30




SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
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