Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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141
FXUS63 KDDC 210530
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Overview: A potent shortwave digging ashore the northern/central
California coast today/tonight and amplify into a closed low over
central/southern California during the day Monday. Downstream -
W-SW flow aloft will prevail over the Central Plains.

Today and Tonight: An amalgamation of small amplitude waves
(including MCVs spawned by a massive nocturnal MCS in the Southern
Plains) were noted over OK and eastern portions of KS this
afternoon - progressing northeast in southwest flow aloft. A
relatively cool/dry surface air mass will remain in place over
the region - in assoc/w high pressure (centered over the Dakotas)
extending southward through the Central/Southern Plains. With a
cool/dry air mass in place and overwhelming subsidence on the
western periphery of the aforementioned waves tracking northeast
from OK into eastern KS, expect dry conditions to prevail.

Monday and Monday night: A surface trough will develop in the lee
of the Rockies on Monday as southwest flow aloft strengthens over
the Intermountain West, in advance of an upper level low
progressing inland toward southern Nevada. Low-level southerly
return flow will gradually strengthen during the day in western
TX, eastern NM, and southern CO - advecting modest low-level
moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates - aiding in diurnal
destabilization and the development of scattered convection during
the late afternoon in northeast NM and southern CO. Isolated
convection could propagate downstream into extreme southwest KS
Monday evening, however, unfavorable diurnal timing and a less
favorable thermodynamic environment with eastern extent suggest
such activity will wane within a few hours of sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Long range guidance suggests that the upper low progressing ashore
CA today/tonight will stall over the Intermountain West and
gradually dissipate by mid-late week as an upper level ridge
strengthens over the Southern/Central Plains. With the above in
mind, expect a warming trend and a decreasing potential for
convection as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Light easterly upslope flow will continue overnight across western
Kansas and as temperatures fall back to near the dew point there
will be areas of fog developing during the overnight hours. Dense
fog will be the main challenge tonight and current confidence is
not high on where the lower visibilities and ceiling will
develop. Based on the latest HRRR,ARW,NMM and BUFR NAM soundings
am currently favoring the lower ceilings and visibilities to be
mainly between 09z and 15z Monday and the locations most favorable
for this dense fog will be in the Hays area and locations east
and north of Garden City. Patchy fog will be possible further
south early this morning but visibilities should stay above 1/2
mile. Will monitor this and adjust as need if these conditions
change.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  81  62  85 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  50  83  60  85 /   0  20  10  20
EHA  54  82  59  82 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  54  83  61  84 /   0  20  20  30
HYS  51  80  62  86 /   0  10  20  10
P28  57  83  63  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...Burgert



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