Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192325
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High pressure will continue to prevail over western Kansas with
surface ridging stretching across the central plains extending
from the northern Rockies. Light easterly flow will continue this
afternoon into the evening hours under a fairly light pressure
gradient across most of the CWA, minus for the western counties
20-25mph gusts are expected where a more southerly fetch is
located, also bringing in a dryer air as well. This will change
heading into the overnight hours and into Friday as the pressure
gradient tightens and is more southeasterly as a cold frontal
boundary will push closer across the four corner region. An upper
level low off the Californian coast will start to push east
supporting the aforementioned surface front as it makes its way
across the desert southwest. It will deepen with this movement due
to the upper level divergence ahead of the system along the long
wave trough pattern for the western half of the country. For the
rest of today, enjoy a pleasant afternoon with high temperatures
in the 60s with not as low of a relative humidity due to the more
moist, easterly flow. Over night, the winds will pick up gradually
as high clouds start to evade the region more prevalently as the
aforementioned upper level low continues its eastward path.

Friday morning will see a more mild start with low temperatures in
the upper 30s and around 40 due to increased cloud cover with mid
level moisture advecting in from the southwest ahead of the upper
level low. Winds will start gusting up to 25-30mph across the CWA
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the low pressure system
pushing in passing to the south by later in the afternoon.
Precipitation chances will increase for the western counties with
a steady, stratiform rain by early afternoon where low level
clouds start to drop into the area. This will progress east
throughout the afternoon and evening hours with models consistent
on rain to fall with totals expected to be around a quarter to
half inch for this first round of precipitation. With increased
clouds and precipitation chances, temperatures will only push into
the 50s for most of the area with low 60s in the eastern counties
not seeing these affects until later in the afternoon. More cold
rain is expected over Friday night and into Saturday with higher
amounts expected with the wrap around flow of the deformation zone
of the occlusion. The system is trending by all models to be a
relatively slow moving system allowing rain to fall upwards to an
inch or so for this time frame even with a lower amount expected
than previously thought.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Periods of desperately needed rain will continue Friday night
through Saturday. 12z ECMWF places closed low near Alamosa
Colorado at 7 pm Friday, at which time numerous/widespread rain
showers will be ongoing across SW Kansas. Continued to push pop
grids further into the definite/categorical range. Rain is on its
way. Maintained a mention of isolated thunder along and south of
US 50 Friday evening, but elevated instability is weak, and
wouldn`t be surprised if we get no thunder at all. Can never rule
out elevated convection with such strong warm advection in April.
With time Friday night, closed 560 dm low crawls slowly east,
centered near Springfield, Colorado (Baca county) around sunrise
Saturday. Warm conveyor belt will continue to advance eastward
into central Kansas Saturday morning, with ECMWF clearly showing a
lull in rain coverage/intensity Saturday morning with the
associated dryslot.

Saturday...Rain will continue, but exactly how much more we get
depends on the models` depiction of deformation/stratiform rain.
ECMWF is showing the most consistency (no surprise) with the upper
low near Enid, Oklahoma by 7 pm Saturday, and wraparound rain
across the SE 1/2 of the CWA through Saturday afternoon.
Operational 12z GFS solution looks suspect, with a very elongated
upper low over the plains, and never really developing defined
deformation. On the other hand, 12z NAM is really excited about
developing much more rain over SW KS on Saturday. Confidence in
rain Friday and Saturday is 100%. The subtle model differences
will determine QPF fields and final rain amounts. Still, a
widespread 1/2"-3/4" is expected in all zones, with the luckiest
locales receiving 1-1.5". This rain will go a long way in
alleviating fire danger and assisting green up, but the long term
drought will be going nowhere. With clouds and rain all day,
purposely selected the coolest raw model guidance for temperatures
Saturday, with most of the day spent in the 40s.

All rain will end quickly west to east Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday will feature dry weather and moderating
temperatures. Sunday will be a pleasant day to watch the grass
turn green, with sunshine, light winds, and highs in the lower
60s. Most locales will make a run for the lower 70s Monday
afternoon.

Another strong cold front is expected Tuesday. Gusty north winds
and cooler temperatures are a certainty, but it will likely be a
bit cooler/windier than model blend suggests. Almost all
associated rain showers with the parent shortwave will remain
relegated to areas NE of SW KS. As such, NE zones will have the
best opportunity for a passing rain shower with this frontal
passage. Meaningful/useful rainfall is not expected.

Cold 1033 mb Canadian surface high builds into the central plains
Wednesday morning. ECMWF bias corrected guidance for temperatures
sunrise Wednesday is starting to trend toward freezing, especially
NW zones. Will need to watch the freeze potential here.

Thursday...Sunny dry and warmer.

Friday...Dry and even warmer. Synoptic pattern on 12z ECMWF late
next week shows a deep closed low near Los Angeles, with quiet
ridging over the plains, with no chance of rain or thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the first half of
this period. An approaching upper level low pressure system plus
some increasingly moist low level southeasterly flow will bring
MVFR cigs and scattered showers to much of southwest Kansas by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  59  41  50 /  10  60  70  70
GCK  40  55  41  50 /  10  70  80  70
EHA  39  52  40  52 /  10  80  70  40
LBL  40  57  42  50 /   0  80  80  60
HYS  38  60  41  50 /   0  40  70  60
P28  39  64  44  50 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard


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