Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242314
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
614 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Clouds are clearing out this afternoon behind this morning`s
system, which is finally allowing temperatures to quickly rise.
Temperatures should reach into the lower 90s for most of southwest
Kansas, and lowered temperatures a few degrees for areas with
lingering cloud cover toward central Kansas, reaching upper 80s.

Focus turns to thunderstorm chances once again this evening, due
to another embedded shortwave in the northwest flow, in concert
with a surface low in eastern Colorado that will push a very weak
cold front through southwest Kansas through the overnight.
Infrared satellite shows storms have already begun along the
Palmer Divide, with Convective Allowing Models showing agreement
on these storms moving east where they will slowly enter into
better moisture and better/increasing CAPE values. Modest bulk
shear values in the 25-35 knot range should allow for storm
organization into a small mesoscale convective complex toward
northern Kansas by 6-7pm, with bowing features that will create
high wind issues as this system pushes east for, at least, our
northern counties. CAMs do show some differences of storm
evolution through southwest Kansas. As the surface low moves south
this evening pushing the boundary/weak cold front through the
region, storms could form along this boundary. IF they do, storms
could reach as far south as Garden City/Dodge City. This could
also introduce the potential for high-based landspout tornadoes
that form along the boundary, however confidence this this
occurring is low at this time. Precipitable water value in this
morning`s sounding was reaching into the 75th percentile, and
values will increase as storms move east this evening. Therefore,
we can`t rule out possible flooding issues if storms train. Storms
will move out of Southwest Kansas overnight. Main threats with
this system are high winds up to 60-70 mph, and hail as large as
quarters. Temperatures will drop into the upper 50 to upper 60
range overnight.

While a cold front pushed, temperatures behind the airmass on
Friday will feel similar, with highs in the 90s. We should
finally have a break from the wind flowing westerly at less than
10 mph through the day. There is another chance of storms again on
Friday, but evolution of these storms will be determined greatly
on what happens on Thursday night. Due to low confidence, have
left the given pops.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Long term forecast will be highlighted by persistently above
normal temperatures (both highs and lows) along with a small
chance for a late day/evening thunderstorm virtually every day.

A rather odd upper air pattern is forecast on Saturday, with
strong ridging over Kansas, sandwiched between a 568 dm closed
upper low in Nevada, and a developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf
of Mexico. Subsidence beneath the ridge axis looks very strong
Saturday, and agree with the model blend that keeps SW KS dry.
Plenty hot, with afternoon max temp grids in the 95-101 range.
Normal for late May is lower 80s. SE winds of 10-20 mph.

Synoptic pattern remains the same Sunday, but edges eastward, with
the ridge axis centering near Wichita by late afternoon. 12z ECMWF
develops tropical cyclone Alberto strongly in the central Gulf of
Mexico. Weak SW flow aloft develops aloft over SW KS, with
convergence along the attendant lee troughing focusing scattered
afternoon convection across the western zones. Despite strong SEly
winds, moisture supply will be less than ideal to support severe
convection (robbed by offshore flow west of Alberto). 12z ECMWF
only supports surface dewpoints in the lower 50s at storm
initiation time. As such, storms that form over the western
counties Sunday afternoon will be high- based and form in an
inverted-V environment, with a primary risk of strong downburst
winds. With no airmass change, temperatures will remain stagnant,
with continued lows in the 60s and highs in the 90s.

Memorial Day, tropical cyclone Alberto is progged to make landfall
in the central Gulf Coast. The ridge of high pressure separating
Kansas from Alberto will progress further eastward, centered over
SE KS. Western closed low edges eastward as well, into Utah. SW
flow aloft will be somewhat stronger, with models hinting at
embedded shortwaves to enhance late day convection. ECMWF shows a
modest increase in moisture quality, courtesy of continued
moisture advection on strong SE winds. Again, Alberto will have
something to say about this, but ECMWF still shows lower 60s
dewpoints returning to SW KS Memorial Day afternoon, along with
convective QPF initiation. Given the climatological peak of severe
weather season, will need to monitor for severe potential on
Memorial Day closely, despite the tropical cyclone`s presence. The
best wind flow/shear to support strong convection appears to be
Monday, before trough lifts into the northern plains and weakens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR conditions through the time period. Main threat will be from
02Z-05Z for the possibility of nearby storms for DDC, GCK, and
HYS. A line of storms is forecast to move from eastern Colorado
through northwest and northcentral Kansas tonight which would
have the greatest chance of affecting HYS. Storms are possible
for GCK and DDC although the probabilities are lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  93  63  96 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  61  93  61  98 /  40  10  10   0
EHA  60  94  61  98 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  63  98  63 101 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  63  93  63  95 /  50  10  10   0
P28  66  96  66  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro


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