Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
408 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was moving across northwestern
Oklahoma during the overnight hours -- farther south than mesoscale
models forecast, thus have keep POPs highest just along the Oklahoma
border through the early morning hours. This MCS occurred in
vicinity of the right-entrance region of a north-south oriented
upper level jet extending from the western Dakotas into eastern
Colorado. The main upper low was located over eastern Montana, but
trailing shortwave energy could be seen on water vapor loop and RAP
analysis extending from eastern Wyoming to northern Utah. The
feature across northern Utah is of most interest this morning, as
short-term models show this moving into Colorado later in the day,
resulting in low level winds veering to easterly component behind
very weak cold front (more or less a surface trough axis as the air
behind the front will be downslope modified).

What will probably happen is that initial convection will fire off
the Palmer Divide mid to late afternoon in the drier air where
mixing heights will be high. A storm (or storms) will likely move
east along or just south of I-70 toward the Kansas border by early
to mid evening, interacting with more moisture/higher CAPE. Deep
layer shear profiles look good for at least marginal supercell
structure with solid 90-degree turning from near-surface (south) to
6km AGL (from almost due west). All convective-allowing models show
strong/severe convection organizing into at least a small MCS later
in the evening as it moves deeper into Kansas. In the grids, will
have 50-60 POPs mainly along/north of Highway 96 with 20-30 POPs
down to the Highway 50 corridor. Should a MCS organize early enough,
there will likely be a tendency toward right-moving into low level
jet. The NSSL WRF-ARW model suggest this more southern solution down
toward Highway 50, although the consensus among all models is that a
MCS will track more east or east-southeast between Highway 96 and I-
70. As far as convective mode goes for the DDC CWA, the thinking is
that a MCS will at least be in the formative stages with best chance
at early supercell phase being in GLD CWA across northwest Kansas
and adjacent east-central Colorado. For that reason, will be going
with most likely largest hail size across DDC CWA in the quarter to
golf ball size range with max wind gusts 60-70 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Rising heights and shortwave ridging will be the story across
western Kansas Friday and Saturday as the next upper low starts to
take shape across the West. Friday and Saturday should be quite warm
with widespread highs in the mid to upper 90s, especially Saturday.
In fact, along the Oklahoma border there will probably be a couple
100-degree readings for highs. Going into Sunday, yet another hot
day is expected, but as the upper level jet approaches the High
Plains, low level convergence will start to increase, and thus
thunderstorm chances increase. The updated forecast will have 20-30
POPs across at least some portion of southwest-west central Kansas
Sunday Night through Tuesday with leeside trough convergence hanging
out along or near the Colorado border with a decent southwest flow
aloft pattern. High-based severe storms can be expected in a pattern
like this with decent low level flow from the south-southeast and
upper level flow from the southwest. Moisture quality this far west
will be fairly marginal for anything other than non-tornadic high-
based supercells/multicells. The latest ECMWF model suggests
southwest flow aloft going through the next week, which would keep
at least isolated severe thunderstorm risk across some portion of
western Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Ongoing mesoscale convective system (MCS) at the beginning of
this TAF period is expected to remain south and east of all the
terminals (DDC, GCK, HYS, LBL) through the remainder of the
overnight hours. Strong southeast outflow winds from the MCS will
be problematic for the short term forecast, but are expected to
settle down to the 12-16 knot range after 08-09Z time frame
(mainly of impact to DDC and LBL). On Thursday, winds will remain
out of the south at 14 to 17 knots in the afternoon with VFR
prevailing. There is a chance for thunderstorms toward the end of
this TAF period, moving out of northwest or west central KS, but
probability of impact at any of the terminals is too low to
include in TAF at this time.


DDC  90  65  95  62 /  10  30  10  10
GCK  90  62  94  60 /  10  30  10   0
EHA  91  60  94  60 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  90  64  96  61 /  10   0  10   0
HYS  90  63  93  62 /  10  50  10  10
P28  90  69  98  66 /   0  20  10  20




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.