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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached (R1-Minor) moderate levels this period. Region
3645 (S09W34, Dki/beta-gamma) produced an M1.0/1f flare at 21/1259 UTC.
This region saw slight growth in the peripheral spots. Region 3638
(S18W35, Cri/beta) produced an M3.4/Sn flare at 22/2152 UTC, with an
observed Type II radio sweep (est. 278 km/s). Further coronagraph
imagery is need to analyze any CME that may be associated with the
event. Slight area growth was noted in this region. C-class flare
activity was also observed from several additional regions. The
remaining regions were stable or in decay.

New Regions 3652 (N15E31, Cai/beta), 3653 (N03E60, Axx/alpha), 3654
(S07E62, Bxo/beta), 3655 (S27E62, Cro/beta) and 3656 (S12E72, Hsx/alpha)
were numbered this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 22-24 Apr, with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a chance for an X-class flare
(R3/Strong).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 22-24 Apr. There is a slight chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over
22-24 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the
visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were nominal throughout the period. Wind speeds
ranged between around 400-500 km/. Total magnetic field strength was
between 2-7 nT and the Bz component generally remained southward to -5
to -6 nT. The phi angle was mostly in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Apr
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels this period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 22-24 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.