Flood Potential Outlook Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FGUS73 KDTX 291706
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-081200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024
...2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...
The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Pine River
Midland 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Tittabawassee River
Midland 24.0 25.0 28.0 12 22 9 21 <5 7
Shiawassee River
Owosso 7.0 9.0 10.0 27 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
Kearsley Creek
Davison 10.0 11.0 12.0 19 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
Flint River
Flint 13.0 15.0 17.0 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cass River
Cass City 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Vassar 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Frankenmuth 17.0 20.0 25.0 35 44 8 13 <5 <5
Saginaw River
Saginaw 17.0 19.0 24.0 22 27 8 14 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Clinton River
Clinton Twp 16.0 17.0 19.0 17 17 7 8 <5 <5
MT Clemens 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
River Rouge
Detroit 15.0 18.0 20.0 26 28 <5 <5 <5 <5
Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lower Rouge River
Dearborn 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mill Creek
Dexter 12.0 13.0 14.0 9 14 7 8 <5 5
Huron River
Hamburg 7.0 7.5 8.0 35 25 18 14 9 8
Ann Arbor 16.0 17.0 18.0 11 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
River Raisin
Tecumseh 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Aadrian 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Blissfield 683.0 685.0 687.0 13 21 6 7 <5 <5
Dundee 650.0 652.0 653.0 12 18 6 8 <5 7
Monroe 9.0 10.0 11.0 13 21 <5 6 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
...PAST PRECIPITATION...
Thus far this Winter temperatures overall have been much above normal. January
was the only month with above normal precipitation with slightly above normal
snowfall. The Winter as a whole is slightly below normal in precipitation
and well below normal in snow fall.
...RIVER CONDITIONS...
Most rivers are flowing from around to below normal. Base flows have come down
since the first outlook.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Late fall and early winter did see below normal precipitation but the high
precipitation and snow melt in January has moisten the upper zone of the soil.
Lower zones still remain drier then normal. Frost depths are little to none.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
Snow pack is almost non existant across the area.
...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The outlook for the next 8-14 days calls for much above average temperatures
and near normal precipitation. The outlook for the rest of Spring is for
above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation.
...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
With no snow pack most of the winter and little frost depth, the risk for
Spring flooding is below normal for this year.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX
$$
DRC