284
AXPZ20 KNHC 122137
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2125 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1010 mb low pres near 12N102W to 08N121W. The ITCZ
stretches from 08N121W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from 03N to 14N and between 91W and
115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The offshore waters of Mexico continue under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge located well NW of the Mexican offshore
waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that
moderate to locally fresh NW winds are present in the offshore
waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with
the highest seas occurring near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Elsewhere, including the Gulfs of California and Tehuantepec,
satellite-derived wind data show light to gentle winds. Slight
to moderate seas are prevalent in the area described.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds, and
moderate seas or less, will prevail off the Baja California
waters through late next week. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will push through the mountain passages of Baja California into
the Gulf of California at night. Gentle to locally moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open
offshore waters of Mexico through late next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak high pressure system north of the area sustains moderate
easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Mainly moderate
southerly winds are noted south of 04N. Seas in the areas
described are 5-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring south of
the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are
forecast south of the monsoon trough through the end of next
week. Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will
support seas of 6-7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands through
much of the forecast period. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
will prevail with moderate seas of 5 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure system located well NW of the area
continues to dominate the basin. The pressure gradient between
the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in moderate to locally fresh easterly winds from 06N to
22N and west of 115W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found south of
the monsoon trough and between 95W and 125W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-
force winds are occurring with the strongest storms in the
monsoon trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ
to near 20N and W of 120W through the forecast period. Winds will
be freshening up late next week in the eastern waters of the
basin.

$$
Delgado