Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
660 FXUS64 KEPZ 082332 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 532 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Warm and breezy conditions are expected through much of the next seven days. A boundary will switch winds in the morning from the east, but winds return from the west by afternoon. On Saturday, eastern areas, especially the Sacramento Mountains, will have a chance for some thunderstorms. Dry and warm conditions return Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Long wave UL trough will continue to cover the Western CONUS for the next few days. We expect another breezy to windy afternoon today, but high pressure will move south through the Plains inhibiting lee troughing for Thursday. Winds will not be as breezy, which will alleviate fire concerns. The air mass associated with the high pressure looks to push through much of the CWA to at least the Continental Divide during the overnight hours into Friday morning. This moisture will be short-lived and shallow, so it retreats back to the east during the afternoon hours. A closed low is expected to organize toward Las Vegas, NV, which will help provide some dynamics to where moisture remains, which may be far east Hudspeth Co and the Sacramento Mountains, where there are slight POPs late evening and overnight. A better surge is expected Friday night into Saturday, but the air mass will again retreat east. Guidance shows it may not retreat as far, so there is a bit better chance of precip for the Sacs and mainly Hudspeth County. For areas west of this boundary, temperatures will be seasonal to slightly above seasonal. UL low swings through to our north on Sunday, which will firmly displace the moisture to our east, placing us in the dry slot. The track of the low will be far enough for modest precip chances in our mountains, but that will be about all. Elsewhere, warm and breezy to low-end windy conditions will bring another day of elevated to near- critical fire danger. This UL low clears out Sunday night, leaving NM and Far W. TX at the base of a s/w ridge in its wake. We will still be at the northern edge of the subtropical jet, which will be enough to bring us breezy winds in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Breezy west winds will continue the next couple hours before diminishing to around 10-15KT after sunset and through much of tomorrow morning. Hazy skies possible for KELP but dust will not be a concern for the remainder of today and tomorrow. A pleasant day can be expected tomorrow with low end breeziness during the afternoon (a bit weaker winds compared to what we`re seeing today). SKC will continue through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Fire concerns decrease after this afternoon. Thursday will remain very dry with min RH values near 10 and poor recoveries in the morning. Nevertheless, winds will be lighter, topping out around 10 to 15 MPH. Venting will be excellent. Starting Thursday night into Friday morning, a boundary will move east to west bringing with it an increase in moisture. Latest guidance shows it reaching the Continental Divide by morning, but may extend to the AZ border. Regardless, the air mass will mainly improve overnight recoveries as it will shift back to the east in the afternoon. Only far eastern zones may see improvements in afternoon recoveries. The airmass pushes west again overnight Friday into Saturday, but may not retreat as far east. Eastern areas have a chance for a shower and thunderstorm. Dry air completely sweeps through the area on Sunday along with some increase in winds. At this time though it appears winds will fall short of any critical thresholds topping out around 15 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 82 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 60 38 59 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 50 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 48 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 80 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 86 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 57 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 84 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 44 73 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 42 69 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 42 73 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 46 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 73 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 42 76 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 79 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 74 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 76 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 82 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 82 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher