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Spot Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 201719
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1119 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns remain LOW today and Sunday. Min RHs this afternoon
will be 12-15 percent with high temperatures a few degrees cooler than
yesterday. Winds light and variable over the next hour or two, becoming
west to southwest at 8 to 15 mph this afternoon and early evening. Sufficient
afternoon mixing will promote Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation rates
today. Good overnight recoveries of 43 to 50 percent with cool temperatures
in the middle to upper 40s. Slightly cooler temperatures with Min RH values
between 20 to 25 percent expected, along with light to low-end breezy winds
out of the southeast to south.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny to partly cloudy (10-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73-76.
Min humidity........12-15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......10000 to 12000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good to Excellent (100000-151100 knot-ft)
during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  10  10  10  7   7   7
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............67  70  72  74  75  75  74
RH..............17  15  15  13  13  12  12
20 FT wind dir..WNW W   SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   8   9   10  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.8   14  16  16  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...9   11  12  12  12  12  11
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  16  16  16  16
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..111 151 151 181 181 181 181
Ventrate Cat....VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45-50.
Max humidity........43-48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph shifting to the north 3
                    to 7 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 16 mph shifting to the north
                    around 9 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (152700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (4400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   5   5   2   2   2   3   3   3   10  10  10
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  67  63  60  58  56  55  53  52  51  50  49
RH..............13  15  18  20  23  24  26  31  32  34  37  40
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..11  11  10  9   9   9   7   7   7   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.19  17  17  15  14  14  13  12  12  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...10  7   1   1   0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  16  13  13  13  13  9   9   9   9
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..153 85  153 153 6   6   6   6   4   4   4   4
Ventrate Cat....EXL VGD PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68 to 71.
Min humidity........22 to 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North to east winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
                    10 to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 to 8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph shifting to the south
                    around 10 to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (91700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20  20  20  9   9   9   14  14  14  24  24  24
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  49  54  57  61  64  67  68  70  71  71  70
RH..............44  44  43  43  41  38  34  33  30  28  26  24
20 FT wind dir..N   N   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   7   7   7   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  12  12  12  18  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.1 3.5 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   12  12  12  12  13  13  13  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11  11  11  11  69  69  69  69  92  92  92  92
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southeast winds around 9 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds
around 9 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...FEMO t
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.5/EPZ
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
