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Spot Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 231232
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
632 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and dry conditions today and tomorrow with Excellent smoke
ventilation during the afternoon hours. Transport will be toward
the WNW and remain consistent during the daytime hours. Very
similar conditions on Wednesday. Winds increase significantly on
Thursday, with Red Flags likely area wide. Conditions will remain
quite breezy Thursday through this weekend. No precipitation
expected through the rest of April.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (52200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (126000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (164700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........6      0      0      1      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............53     61     68     73     76     75
RH..............38     29     20     16     13     12
20 ft wind......NW 6   W 8    W 8    W 12   W 13   W 13
20 ft wind gust.12     20     20     24     26     26
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   4000   6800   6800   8000   8000
Transport wind..NW 12  NW 12  W 19   W 19   W 21   W 21
Haines index....3      3      4      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..52     52     126    126    165    165
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (154800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      6      2      12     12     58
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............73     65     61     58     56     53
RH..............13     18     20     25     26     31
20 ft wind......W 13   W 13   W 9    NW 7   NW 7   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.25     25     18     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....7700   7700   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 18   W 18   W 13   W 13   NW 13  NW 13
Haines index....5      4      3      3      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..155    155    6      6      6      6
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest
                    10 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (36100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (97700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (138700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........82        69        64        73
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............52        61        69        73
RH..............32        26        18        13
20 FT wind......NW 6G10   W 7G16    SW 10G21  SW 12G23
Mix hgt (ft)....3000      3000      6600      7200
Transport wind..NW 11     NW 11     SW 16     SW 21
Haines index....2         3         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..36        36        98        139
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s.
West winds around 16 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 18 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. West
winds around 17 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...FEMO t
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.9/EPZ
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
