332
FNUS74 KEPZ 012336
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Trending warmer and drier, but with a bit less wind Thursday
through Saturday. A very dry west flow pattern will allow for
steady temperatures warmer than average. Relative humidity
will run low, and trend lower, with minimums near 10 percent and
quite poor recoveries. Winds will slacken a bit with only
marginally breezy conditions through the week. We are watching
the Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday timeframe for increased winds
leading to Critical fire weather and Red Flag Warnings.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (140400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........8      2      6      6      21
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............46     56     63     68     70
RH..............38     27     18     15     13
20 ft wind......NW 7   NW 7   W 8    W 8    SW 10
20 ft wind gust.13     14     16     16     20
Mix hgt (ft)....800    6400   8400   10400  11400
Transport wind..NW 13  W 11   W 11   W 12   W 12
Haines index....2      3      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34     59     79     110    140
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (135300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (6200 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........23     15     7      5      5      6
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     55     49     45     42     39
RH..............16     25     33     38     43     48
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 11  W 10   W 6    W 6    W 4
20 ft wind gust.22     22     22     13     13     9
Mix hgt (ft)....10400  1400   600    600    500    500
Transport wind..W 18   W 18   W 15   W 15   W 12   W 12
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..135    45     7      7      6      6
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 12 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (29500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (174500 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........3         3         5         7
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............38        53        64        70
RH..............50        31        15        11
20 FT wind......W 4G9     W 7G14    SW 9G21   SW 12G22
Mix hgt (ft)....700       3700      9600      11700
Transport wind..W 8       W 8       SW 13     W 17
Haines index....4         4         5         6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3         30        110       175
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest
winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. Southwest
winds around 12 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 18 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...SILVER CITY RANGER DISTRICT
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412655.3/EPZ
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV