Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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945 FXUS63 KFGF 011900 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic bouts of rain over the next week, with the next one providing the entire region rainfall on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery indicates a deep trough across the western CONUS slowly propagating to the east, along with a developing upper low across the northern Rockies. Ensemble guidance in good agreement depicting the upper low to slowly propagate east across southern Canada, with stronger pieces of energy rotating around this main feature into Friday. During this time, other upper level waves ejecting from the western CONUS trough will remain south of our region. Ridging into the weekend and related dry weather will be replaced by another slow moving system that will bring rain chances next week. ...Periodic bouts of rain... Impacts from these periodic bouts of rain will be minimal with the potential for excessive rainfall very low. Main impacts will be outdoor activities such as baseball games, picnics, agriculture planting, etc. For tonight into Thursday, an upper level wave rounding the base of the main upper low will bring forcing to much of the region with widespread rainfall. The track of this feature will determine where the strongest forcing and highest rainfall totals take place, which most ensemble guidance indicates will be NE ND into far NW MN with less amounts to the east/southeast. For NE ND into far NW MN, the 25th/75th percentile range of forecasted precipitation is 0.75-1.00 inches. For west central Minnesota, the 25th/75th percentile range of forecasted precipitation is 0.25 to 0.40 inches. For Thursday late afternoon/evening, a narrow band of instability will advect into central ND, with convection possible along any low level boundaries that may exist. Unsure how far east convection may make it, but synoptic pattern would support very small hail or maybe even a funnel or two. For Friday, aside from isolated cold pool showers not much for forcing. There will be a banded precip event across central MN, with latest ensemble guidance suggesting this will remain to the southeast of this forecast area. Lots of uncertainty next week with details, but a very high chance for at least some rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A few cumulus decks are near 3000 feet, but anticipate cloud bases to rise to VFR early afternoon. VFR conditions with gusty westerly winds this afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable this evening. The next system of concern will be spreading into the region tonight with most areas at least MVFR on Thursday along with periods of light rain. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...TG