793
FXUS65 KFGZ 012056
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
156 PM MST Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the
rest of the week. Windier, more unsettled weather returns late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few light showers have popped up this afternoon
over far northern AZ with the trough passing to our north - these
should quickly dissipate this evening, with fair skies and
seasonably cool temperatures expected overnight.

With the passage of this trough, expect generally featureless
zonal flow across the Southwest through the rest of the week as a
deep trough slowly drops into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures
through Friday will be near to, or slightly above normal with
seasonal afternoon breezes.

Over the weekend, the aforementioned NW trough will aggressively
dig southeast through northern California and into the Great
Basin. The trough will be far enough south to bring strong winds
to the area, but not deep enough for significant precipitation in
Arizona. Models have continued to merge into a solution that will
favor wind gusts of 25-35 mph on Saturday afternoon, and gusts in
excess of 50 mph on Sunday over and downwind of the higher
terrain. The meteorological conditions will be consistent with
near critical fire weather conditions over east and northeast AZ
this weekend - something to watch closely as our finer fuels
continue to dry this week.

Relatively cool, fair weather will return to Arizona next week as
dry westerly flow once again re-asserts itself across the area.


&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 01/18Z through Thursday 02/18Z...VFR
conditions are expected with mostly clear skies. Anticipate west-
southwest winds 10-20 kts in the afternoon, weakening to under 10
kts after 02Z. Winds may turn northeast 10-15kts for a few hours
around 10Z...then become southwest after 16Z.


OUTLOOK...Thursday 02/18Z through Saturday 04/18Z...VFR conditions
persist through Saturday with little to no cloud cover. Afternoon
west-southwest winds, 10-20 kts, persist on Thursday and Friday,
becoming stronger on Saturday, 20-30 kts

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...A few light showers will
continue moving across far northern Coconino County through this
evening. Expect minimum humidity of 15 to 20% for this afternoon,
decreasing to 10 to 15% on Thursday. Winds will be out of the west-
southwest, 15 to 25 mph, each afternoon resulting in good to
excellent mixing conditions.

Saturday through Monday...Warm and windy afternoons will continue
through Saturday with with minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. Southwest
winds increase each day, becoming very strong on Sunday with
widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph with areas of critical fire weather
conditions are likely. A few showers are possible over the Kaibab
Plateau on Sunday. Winds will decrease some on Monday.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff