Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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300 FXUS63 KGID 100903 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 403 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few sprinkles possible this afternoon, but no accumulation expected. - A return to more active weather returns Saturday evening as an upper level low approaches the area from the west. This could result in increased cloud cover as well as unsettled weather (40-80% chance) late Saturday night through Monday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) return with a cold front/upper level disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again, severe weather is not anticipated. - For the most part temperatures will remain seasonable through the period with high temperatures climbing into the 70s along with low temperatures mostly in the 40s and lower 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A few high clouds can be seen on satellite this morning streaming across the local area from the west as the next area of low pressure spins across central Nevada. For today, expect another pleasant day across the region with slightly lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes across the local area. As the same time, expect a few cumulus to develop across the area again this afternoon - with some sprinkles (as seen in NAMnest and to a lesser extend in the HRRR) likely in spots later in the day as daytime heating helps in the development of some mainly fair weather CU. Looking at soundings, this CU should be pretty shallow given the inversion aloft, and think no more than a few sprinkles (with no accumulation) appears likely at this time. As the pressure gradient weakens further and winds turn westerly on Saturday, expect a slightly warmer and less breezy day across the area, with high temperatures likely approaching the upper 70s to near 80 in spots. The focus will then shift to the aforementioned upper level low to our west that is expect to cross just south of the local area on Sunday. This should mark the return of a better chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity spreading across the region as early as late Saturday night, with off and on small chances for thunderstorms then continuing into Monday morning. While precipitation will not be continuous and thunderstorms should not be severe late this weekend, precipitation should be a bit more widepsread with most locations seeing some accumulation over this period (maybe a quarter of an inch or so), with the higher amounts expected across north central Kansas - which will be closer to the upper level low/forcing. While Tuesday daytime will likely be dry, a cold front coupled with an upper level wave could bring additional chances for precip beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday. Again, severe weather chances appear limited given the atmospheric profile, but most areas should see some light accumulating precip over this period. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly pleasant through the period, with afternoon high temperatures mostly fluctuating in the 70s and lows in the 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with a few high clouds visible in Satellite imagery that are anticipated to pass by the terminals through the period. In addition...could see a bit of fair weather CU develop during the afternoon near 6KFT, with steady northwest winds gusting to near 20 KTS possible for a few hours during the afternoon hours Friday...before subsiding again near sunset. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi