850
FXUS63 KGID 110523
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1223 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Skies clear out this evening. Sky conditions will be favorable
  conditions to possibly view the northern lights late tonight.

- Pleasant and dry on Saturday.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return late Saturday
  night into Sunday. Highest precipitation totals are favored
  over Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A chance for sprinkles has been maintained in the forecast, but
based on radar and near-term model trends, this probably won`t
amount to more than just a few drops. Skies will then clear out
fairly quickly this evening with loss of diurnal heating. With
recent solar activity, it is possible that the northern lights
will be viewable into portions of Nebraska (and even Kansas).
Visit spaceweather.gov for more specific information regarding
that potential.

Saturday should be warm and mild, with temperatures approaching
80 degrees in many locations. A cutoff upper low then starts
inching into the area late Saturday night, bringing us a chance
for spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two by Sunday
morning.

Off and on showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday,
but the overall consensus is that the highest coverage will
favor southern portions of the forecast area. A few strong storms
cannot be totally ruled out, but instability and shear are both
marginal, at best. Activity lingers Sunday night, with
additional development possible as the system departs on Monday,
especially in our east/southeast.

The next shortwave slowly moves through the area Tuesday night
through Thursday, bringing continued chances for rain and
thunderstorms. That said, rainfall signals on the global
ensembles continue to be rather weak. The CMCE and EPS both
favor below-normal precip totals in the 5-day period Monday
through next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with
clear skies through much of the afternoon hours Saturday
accompanied by light winds overnight, becoming westerly near 10
KTS during the daytime hours Saturday. Clouds should thicken a
bit toward the tail end of the TAF period as an upper level low
approaches the region, but any -SHRA or -TSRA activity should
wait until beyond the current scope of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi