Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1140 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 1140 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Update to forecast to cancel evening High Wind Warning affecting
the CWA tonight. Current obs show winds have dropped down to well
below warning criteria w/ most precip on the outskirts of the CWA
as the surface low moves over the area. Still expected windy
conditions overnight...but nothing near warning criteria.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Tonight-Friday...a compact and dynamic negatively tilted trough with
closed 500mb low is forecast to move into the southwest part of the
forecast area around midnight then over the center of the forecast
area by sunrise Friday. Todays models are much slower in its
movement compared to 24 hours ago. On Friday the low slowly moves
toward north central Nebraska by 18z then toward southeast Nebraska
by 00z Saturday.

Several impacts from this system including evening thunderstorms, a
change over to snow for parts of far eastern Colorado, very strong
northwest winds with gusts over 60 mph possible, and possibly some
blowing dust.

Current thinking is for some low chance pops for showers/possible
thunderstorms do develop along dryline and other various boundaries
generally north of the interstate this evening quickly lifting
northeast and about out of the area by midnight. Across our far west
the leading edge of the wraparound precipitation starts and so far
it should be rain. After midnight likely pops for rain and snow
reach the Colorado Kansas border increasing in coverage by sunrise.
Accumulations of an inch or two are possible for Yuma county and
possibly adjacent counties.

Northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts expected along and
west of the CO/KS border with much lighter winds to the east. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 in far eastern Colorado,
upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere.

For Friday precipitation shield steadily lifts northeast and should
be out of the area by late afternoon. However, northwest winds
continue to increase with sustained speeds of 30 to 40 mph with
gusts to 60 mph, mainly west of a line from about Trenton Nebraska
to Hill City. High temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 along
the KS/NE border to the low 60s from near Burlington to Tribune and

Friday night-Saturday...dry weather expected. South-southeast winds
increase Saturday with breezy conditions expected by early
afternoon. After morning lows in the mid to upper 20s high
temperatures look to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday night-Sunday night...latest model forecasts show another
upper trough with closed low pressure center moving across the KS/OK
border Sunday night. Precipitation chances increase with rain
changing over to snow. North winds increase with the snow possibly
producing reduced visibilities. Light accumulations are currently
expected and will likely change as we approach the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The system impacting the High Plains during the latter half of the
weekend lingers into Monday. Precipitation comes to an end from west
to east through the afternoon hours, transitioning from snow back to
rain as temperatures increase with daily warming. Additional snow
amounts up to an inch are possible.

The cold front that had moved into the region overnight shifts winds
to the northwest and ushers cooler air into the area on Monday as
well. Windy conditions are anticipated on the backside of the
system. Will continue to monitor just how windy it will get.
Elevated fire weather conditions could be possible due to the strong
winds; however, relative humidities greater than 25 percent and the
potential for precipitation appear to be limiting factors at this

Dry weather returns Tuesday through Thursday when an upper ridge
builds into the Plains from the west coast. This results in a
warming trend for the region.

Temperatures drop into the mid 40s to low 50s on Monday, followed by
a gradual increase into the 60s by Wednesday. Lows range from the
20s to low 30s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued
at 1140 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

For KGLD...VFR/MVFR mix as area will see clouds/showers on NW
flow as system exits region during the forecast period. Looking
for ceilings to drop down to BKN020-030 at times after 14z
Friday. Winds...WSW around 15kts thru 09z then WNW 20-30kts w/
gusts nearing 50kts after 17z.

For KMCK...VFR/MVFR mix as area will see clouds/showers on
easterly flow as system exits region during the forecast period.
Looking for ceilings to drop down to BKN010 at times from 14z-
23z. Winds ENE 15-30kts becoming NNE by 14z at 15-30kts.


Issued at 1140 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled for Friday. However,
northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts over 60 mph are
expected making very difficult if not impossible conditions to
fight any fires.

A fire weather highlight may be needed Saturday for much of
far eastern Colorado.


KS...High Wind Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM
     CDT/ Friday for KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ090>092.

NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for NEZ079.



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