National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGLD 180936
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
336 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated over the next few
  days.

- Winter weather may return to portions of the area Friday night
  into Saturday, when rain could mix with, or transition to, wet
  snow. Light snow accumulation is possible especially in Yuma
  county(mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces). Significant
  impacts are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are cloudy as the
area lies in between a strong surface ridge to the north and west,
and a low/front over central/western portions of Kansas. A strong
northerly gradient continues to move through the area with gusts
still reaching the 35 to 50 mph range and temps as of 300 AM
MDT ranging from the 30s west into the lower to mid 40s east.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will initially focus
on the strong northerly gradient over the cwa. Short term guidance
does have the current speeds decreasing through the morning hrs from
north to south as a strong ridge builds southeast into the central
Plains. The result of the ridge building towards the central Plains
is going to allow for the current northerly fetch to become more
east-southeasterly. Short term guidance will have these winds
persist into the first half of the weekend, setting the region up
for the next wx concern.

Next up, the result of the persistent E/SE upslope flow into the cwa
will first be cloud cover to remain. There will be a couple weak
shortwaves around 500/700 mb that will interact with the low level
moisture to create showers. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest)
are showing precip to initiate in the northwest over Yuma county
tonight into Friday morning, then eventually spread east and south
through the day. Best chances for areal coverage precip will occur
Friday night into Saturday morning as another shortwave moves off
the Rockies through zonal flow aloft, before things taper down
Saturday evening as the aforementioned ridge finally moves over the
cwa.

20-30% chances for precip tonight and Friday do give way to 50-80%
chances to end off the week. Friday night will have the highest pop
chances. Colder air working into northern/ western locales will
allow for a changeover to mainly snow showers, especially over Yuma
county. Currently up to an inch is possible there, tapering to a
half inch or less going east and south. Grassy/elevated surfaces
will be most prone to any light accumulation, but current soil/road
temps will aid in keeping amounts down for travel purposes.

Some of the enhancement/changeover to light snow Friday night
will/could be aided by a upslope effects of an 850mb low that pushes
into the Colorado area. Strong ridging in that area may prevent a
push towards the CO/KS border. If it does, the enhanced southeast
flow at 850mb will help to continue/reinforce upslope moisture.

For temps, daytime highs today will range widely with upper 40s in
the west increasing to the upper 50s along/east of Highway 83. For
Friday, 50s for most locales with some areas south of Highway 40
coming close to the 60F mark. Going into Saturday, mainly mid to
upper 40s expected, with areas along/east of Highway 83 around the
50F mark.

Overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s tonight, warmest east of
Highway 25. Friday and Saturday nights, colder with a range from the
upper 20s west into the mid 30s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The long term continues to favor a mix of near and below average
temperatures and some precipitation chances.

Sunday continues to favor dry and mild conditions on the back side
of an upper shortwave. Highs are forecast to reach the 60`s with
winds out of the south.

The rest of the week still has a fair amount of uncertainty due to
the upper pattern. The overall pattern favors a disturbance moving
through to begin the week, followed by some ridging, followed by a
deeper disturbance later in the work week. The uncertainty lies in
how deep/strong the features are and their timing.

Generally, Monday is forecast to be near average with temperatures
in the 70`s and some chances for precipitation later in the day
ahead of a potential shortwave. Tuesday would then be a bit cooler
in the wake of the shortwave. Both days would have chances for
precipitation. Wednesday would then be warmer with highs back
towards 70 and generally dry conditions, though there could still be
precipitation chances with no strong air mass change forecast
(keeping moisture available over the area). Thursday would then be
much warmer with ridging amplifying over the area as long as the
next upper trough doesn`t move through (ensemble spreads generally
favor a end of the week passage of the next trough).

Again this is just a general idea of next week as timing and
magnitude of the features could still have a large impact on
temperatures (most days have a 10-15 degree celsius spread in 850mb
temp possibilities).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR conditions anticipated overnight at both terminals with
ceilings around 1500-3000 ft. Conditions improve again towards
VFR in the morning, beginning around 14Z. A cold front moving
through the area has shifted winds out of the north-northeast,
with gusts approx. 30-40 knots continuing overnight. By
afternoon, the northerly winds will be around 10-15 knots
sustained before becoming light and veering towards the east
during the evening. Continued low confidence in showers
impacting the MCK terminal overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CC