Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear
with just some high clouds filtering thru extreme southern portions
of the CWA. Temperatures are ranging from the mid 20s to around 30F
with a light WSW flow.

Going into today and tonight...H5 ridge will shift east thru the
Plains region with surface ridge east of the region w/ lee-side
trough setting up over the Front Range. The result will be dry
conditions over the 24 hour period. The developing trough to the
west will allow for increased gradient over the area by the
afternoon...especially for western portions of the area which will
farthest away from the effects of the ridge to the east. Gradient
does slacken some in spots during the overnight period...but will
allow for decent WAA to affect temps. Looking for highs today in
the upper 50s thru the mid 60s...warmest west. Overnight lows will
only drop into the lower to mid 30s.

There have been concerns again for Fire Wx conditions this afternoon
for the past several forecasts. Near critical conditions are
possible for NE Colorado with winds reaching near criteria...but RH
readings will only be in the upper teens to the lower 20s.

The main wx concerns for the CWA will occur during the latter potion
of the weekend into Monday. This will occur in form of a low
pressure system passing south of the region along the KS/OK border
late Sunday into Monday. Precip associated with the passage of the
system will start off as much needed rainfall...with the potential
for severe thunderstorms for SE zones w/ general thunder conditions
for the remainder of the area. This would occur in the 00z-06z
Monday timeframe. Conditions do change overnight as colder air wraps
into the area from the N and W. This will allow for a changeover to
light snow from W to E tapering off during the day Monday.

Looking for some light accum going into Monday especially along and
west of Highway 25. Looking for the potential for up to a couple
inches of snow in NE CO tapering down to about an inch nearing
Highway 25. Those areas west could also see blowing snow concerns
develop if winds hold up overnight.

For temps Sunday onward...highs in the 60s Sunday tapering down to
the 40s on Monday with the influx of colder air on northerly flow.
Overnight lows Sunday night in the 30s with 20s Monday night

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A fairly uneventful weather pattern can be expected for this part of
the forecast.  Temperatures will warm through the period as an upper
level ridge builds across the forecast area.  Behind the ridge an
upper level short wave trough will move through, bringing a short
window for rainfall during the latter half of the workweek.  A cold
front will accompany the short wave trough, bringing slightly cooler
temperatures with it.

Friday winds could be breezy with the frontal passage.  With
relative humidity around 20 percent, there will be a concern for
hazardous fire weather conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 518 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Conditions...VFR w/ mainly SKC. Some scattered high clouds for
KMCK after 10z Sunday.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds for KGLD W 5-10kts thru 16z...then SSE 10-15kts w/ gusts to
25kts from 19z Sat-10z Sun.

Winds for KMCK W around 5kts thru 17z...then S around 5kts. By
20z...SE around 10kts.

Low Level Wind Shear...KMCK 10z-12z Sunday 170@25kts.


Issued at 357 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across NE
Colorado today. Winds will meet criteria by the afternoon
hours...but relative humidity readings will only be in the upper
teens to lower 20s.

Hazardous fire weather conditions are also possible on Friday for
locales along and west of Highway 27.




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