Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Tonight...mid and high level clouds increase across the area. Will
be watching for possibility of fog moving into the far east and
northeast portions of the area around sunrise as low level moisture
increases from the south-southeast. Low temperatures in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

Friday...will continue to monitor possibility of fog across the far
east and northeast for a few hours in the morning with decreasing
clouds through mid afternoon. Winds gradually increase into the 20
to 30 mph range across the west by noon slowly veering to the west
then northwest in the afternoon as a cold front moves through.
Afternoon temperatures look to range from the low to mid 70s along
and north of the KS/NE border to the low to mid 80s south of the
interstate. A record high temperature is possible in Tribune (see
climate section below). Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and behind the cold front.

Precipitation chances quickly decrease from west to east in the
evening with little if any cloudiness overnight. We will have to
watch for possibility of some fog as boundary layer increases. NAM
showing visibility restrictions. Low temperatures range from the
low/mid 30s west to low 40s east.

Saturday...could see some high clouds move in from the
west/southwest during the day continuing through midnight before
decreasing from west to east toward sunrise Sunday morning.
Confidence a bit higher in stratus and possibly some fog developing
generally east of the CO/KS border toward sunrise as well. Southeast
winds become breezy to windy along and west of the CO/KS border
during the afternoon. Should see high temperatures in the low 60s
east to mid 60s to around 70 west. Low temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s.

Sunday...forecast area caught in between frontal systems during the
day which will make for a challenging temperature forecast. Right
now no changes will be made and will continue to advertise highs
ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s east to the low/mid 70s far
west and south. No precipitation expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Main forecast concern will be active weather pattern for this
period. Satellite is showing an amplified pattern from the Pacific
into the western Atlantic.

Model agreement has digressed from 24 hours ago after coming into
closer agreement the previous day. Models are having trouble on
the evolution of the incoming complex upper trough with more
problems at the beginning of the period. In general through the
entire period the Gfs is slower, deeper, and further south. The
Ecmwf is the fastest. However for the last few days of the period,
the Gfs is the same as the Ecmwf with the only difference being
the Gfs is about 12 hours slower. Gefs means support a slower
solution than the operational. The newest Ecmwf is still faster
but is now less amplified. So confidence is decreasing in what the
outcome of this scenario will be.

The best mid and upper level lift look to link up later Sunday
night, especially Monday afternoon and night, and to a lesser extent
Tuesday morning. So have no problem with the pops the forecast
builder gave me from the last half of Sunday night into Tuesday.

The problem is at the end of the period, in which I mentioned
yesterday, is the models tendency to not have both streams far
enough south. This typically happens in split flow. If models end up
being correct, the last few days of the period , we will be under
the influence of the weaker/more open northern stream of the split
and possibly weak ridging depending on which model you choose.
The outlier on this is the Canadian which is much further north
than Gfs and Ecmwf. So am thinking the precipitation could be
less. So made no major changes to the Wednesday into Thursday
period, however did start a downward trend and nudged the pops
down a little.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions through the period. Light and variable winds
will continue through about 23z before establishing a southeast
direction around 6kts by 00z. Winds increase toward 12kts from the
south in the 06z-10z timeframe under a mid level deck of clouds.
After 15z winds start to veer to the southwest then west-southwest
and increase in speed with sustained winds around 15kts with
higher gusts.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through 13z winds winds generally
from the east or southeast direction under 10kts. Some stratus and
fog is possible in the 13z-17z timeframe and could produce mvfr or
ifr conditions with an east wind under 10kts. After 17z vfr
conditions expected with winds from the southeast near 10kts.


Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A Red Flag Warning is in effect Friday for locations generally
along and south of a line from Flagler and Burlington to Russell
Springs. Winds begin from the west and southwest at 20 to 30 mph
with higher gusts then slowly veer to the northwest late in the
afternoon as a cold front moves through.

Critical and near critical fire weather conditions are possible


Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A record high temperature is possible in Tribune Friday March 23.
The current record is 82 degrees set back in 1967.


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Friday for KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ253-254.



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