Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1137 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

Issued at 759 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

Latest model data has shifted the chance for seeing a storm to the
western half of the forecast area where weak lift from an upper
level short wave trough will occur along the nose of the low level
jet. Any storms that do form will end before midnight when the
weak lift from the upper level short wave trough ends. With
outflow boundaries most of the way through the forecast area and
weak lift occurring behind the outflow in what should be more
stable air, doubt there will be any severe weather this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

Tonight...general thinking is for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to be in progress across the western 2/3 of the
area by the beginning of the period associated with a weather
disturbance moving in from the southwest. Could have a severe hail
and wind threat from the stronger storms as they move east and
northeast. After midnight activity should be out of the area. Low
temperatures look to range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado to the upper 50s to around 60 east of the CO/KS border.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...another in a series of weather disturbances
moves across much of the area from the southwest supporting at least
a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. High
temperatures in the low to mid 80s in far eastern Colorado, mid 80s
to near 90 east of the CO/KS border. South winds increase during the
morning and early afternoon with 20 to 30 mph sustained speeds with
higher gusts. During the evening south winds of 10 to 20 mph
continue. Low temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in far
eastern Colorado to the low 60s east of the border.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...will have low chances for afternoon and
overnight thunderstorms again. Daytime winds breezy to perhaps windy
from the south, south-southeast. A slight decrease overnight. High
temperatures again in the mid 80s to near 90. Low temperatures
range from the low to upper 50s in far eastern Colorado to the low
to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

12Z ECMWF/GFS guidance continue to indicate troughing along the
Pacific coast late this week - with a ridge building downstream
atop the Rockies and High Plains. The aforementioned ridge is
expected to shift east of the Rockies into the Plains this
weekend as the Pacific trough progresses slowly eastward into the
Intermountain West. With the above in mind, expect warmer/drier
conditions over the Tri-State area late this week into next
weekend. Isolated to scattered convection will remain possible in
the immediate lee of the Rockies and perhaps far western portions
of the High Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main impact will be breezy
winds beginning mid morning and lasting as late as 1z. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur in the afternoon/early evening, but
confidence too low to place a mention in the TAF.




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