Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 242105
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
305 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief/isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing large
  hail possible between 3-7 pm MDT / 4-8 pm CDT this afternoon,
  mainly east of Highway 25.

- Significant winter storm will affect the region tonight into
  Monday. Blizzard conditions expected over much of northeast
  Colorado, northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, where
  travel will become difficult or impossible. About as high
  impact as it gets.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A deepening lee cyclone in Colorado (~984 mb invof Lamar, CO at
2045 UTC) will track E into south-central KS (this evening) and
ENE-NE into far northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska by mid-
day (18Z) Monday. Strong low-level northerly flow on the
western periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone will `tap` a
Canadian airmass (over Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba)..
advecting it southward through the Dakotas into the Central
Plains late this evening and overnight.

Hazard (Severe Storms): Latest radar, observational, and
mesoanalysis trends suggest a brief window of opportunity for a
marginally severe storm east of Highway 25 this afternoon
(21-02Z).

Hazard (Strong N Winds): Strong northerly winds will develop
this evening as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses east
toward central KS.. and an Arctic airmass /cold front/ surges
southeastward into the area. Expect sustained N winds ranging
from 30-45 mph and gusts in the 55-65 mph range. Latest remote
sensing and observational data indicate little if any potential
for dust/fire related hazards.

Hazard (Snow/Blowing Snow): Heavy precipitation will develop on
the W and NW periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone this
evening-overnight, persisting into Monday. Current and recent
guidance has trended upward with regard to precipitation
amounts.. lending increased confidence that a significant
blizzard will impact the region.. creating difficult or
impossible travel conditions along and north of the I-70
corridor tonight and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

West-northwest flow aloft is present at the start of the long term
period with the upper low center now situated over IA/MO within a
broad trough across much of the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure
noses in and we`ll continue with well below normal temperatures
Tuesday, before gradually warming up mid-week. Weak embedded waves
may cause a rogue shower or two to develop Tuesday evening-Wednesday
(<15% chance), but if they do, they`d be minimally (if at all)
impactful. At least some cloud cover will return in this timeframe
before the upstream upper level ridge works its way eastward during
the latter half of the work week. This will promote a warming/drying
trend, once again increasing fire weather concerns, particularly for
Thursday-Friday. Towards the end of the period, model guidance
depicts an upper level low digging south along the west coast, which
will likely become the next system to watch, bringing about a return
of active weather next weekend into the following week. Temperatures
during the long term period continue below normal through Wednesday
before warming to above normal Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

..Dangerous Aviation Conditions Tonight and Monday..

Conditions will deteriorate this evening and overnight.. as
moderate to heavy precipitation /snow/ and strong northerly
winds develop on the western periphery of a deepening low
pressure system progressing eastward across Kansas. Late this
evening and overnight.. north winds will increase to 25-40
knots w/gusts up to 45-50 knots and LIFR-IFR conditions
(assoc/w heavy snow and blowing snow) will predominate. Said
conditions will persist through the duration of the 18Z TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ001>003-013-
     014.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ027-041-042.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for KSZ004-015-016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Monday
     night for COZ090-091.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Monday
     for COZ092.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Monday to midnight MDT
     Monday night for COZ092.
NE...Blizzard Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to
     midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Vincent


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