134
FXUS63 KGLD 080345
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
945 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7PM MDT/8PM CDT
  for the region due to low relative humidity values and gusty
  winds. Winds will decrease this afternoon and evening.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be
  possible for portions of the area on Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

The Red Flag Warning that was in effect has been allowed to
expire at 01z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

A strong pressure gradient remains over the Central High Plains this
afternoon, thanks to a closed upper low over the Dakotas, and an
upper ridge over the Tri-State area.  Winds will remain gusty this
afternoon, particularly for areas south of I-70.  Winds have under
achieved in some areas a bit today.  Relative humidity values remain
in the teens in several areas, resulting in near-critical to
critical fire weather conditions.  A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for the area through 7PM MDT/8PM CDT.

A few models are showing the potential for a few sprinkles or light
showers across the northeastern parts of the area this evening. With
conditions as dry as they are, confidence is low that if anything is
able to develop that any precipitation will reach the ground.  Would
expect virga at best.

Heading into Wednesday, the closed low at 500mb drops back into
Central Nebraska and the panhandle.  Winds are expected to be
lighter tomorrow than the last couple of days.  Relative humidity
values will fall into the teens and 20s across the region.  Elevated
to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Starting Thursday, we come into a period of transition with the
potential for more of an active weather pattern . Models are showing
the potential for split flow developing.  The southern split puts an
upper trough over the western CONUS.  The northern split of the
trough sets up over the Dakotas and Nebraska/Kansas.  Westerly flow
will be in place over the area on Thursday.  Northerly to
northwesterly flow will be over the area during the day.  A weak
disturbance will move into the region, giving areas our next best
chance at showers and a few thunderstorms.  At this time, widespread
severe weather is not anticipated.

More uncertainty comes into the forecast beginning Friday.   For the
time being, conditions look dry and a warm up is expected.  High
temperatures will reach the mid-60s in eastern Colorado to the low
70s in Kansas and Nebraska.

A series of disturbances moving through the region over the weekend
and into the start of next week bring more potential chances for
shower and/or thunderstorms to the area.  Models are not in
agreement over timing and location of these events, so there remains
considerable uncertainty over who will be impacted.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
west wind around 11kts at taf issuance will continue through
13z. From 14z-00z, northwest winds quickly increase with gusts
up to 30kts. After 01z, winds settle below 12kts from the
northwest.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west
wind up to 11kts at taf issuance will continue through 13z. From
14z-01z, northwest winds quickly increase with gusts up to
30kts. After 02z, northwest winds settle below 11kts .

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...99