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000
FXUS63 KGLD 121040
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
440 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire risk today. The fire risk will be on the
  increase over the weekend with critical fire weather
  conditions on Monday.

- There will be a 15% chance for severe thunderstorms Monday
  east of a Oberlin to Oakley line.

- Very windy conditions Monday and Tuesday possible. Wind gusts
  in excess of 50 mph possible at times both days (40-60%).

- Cooler temperatures return to the Tri-State area next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 406 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Over the weekend, expect mostly dry conditions as an upper ridge
moves across the Great Plains. Throughout the day today, a warm
front will move east while a lee trough develops off the Front
Range. Winds ahead of the front are expected to increase with
diurnal mixing; however, we will not be very breezy with gusts only
up to 20 mph. Temperatures are expected to be above normal today
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Humidity will be low today
with the presence of the ridge as values fall into the teens to
lower 20s this afternoon. Since winds are not really a concern
today, we are expecting near critical fire weather conditions due to
low RH values along and west of Highway 27. Tonight will be mild for
the area with overnight lows in the 40s with increasing cloud
cover as the lee trough begins to move across the Tri-State area
towards the northeast.

On Saturday an upper level shortwave will move across the Central
Plains and help push the low into Central Nebraska by the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will continue to increase with highs in the 80s
with some locales, mainly in the eastern half of the area possibly
reaching the 90 degree mark for the first time this year. RH values
are also also forecast to be lower with the warmer temperatures. RH
values are expected to fall into the teens across the area Saturday
afternoon. Winds are a little more concerning for tomorrow as they
shift from southeast to northwest with the track of the surface
trough with gust up to 30 mph possible. Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions are possible across the Tri-State area.
Locales in the southwest corner of the area are at risk for critical
fire weather conditions. The big question is how long conditions
will overlap. For now, held off on a Red Flag Warning for those
counties given the uncertainty. During the late morning to mid
afternoon, CAMs are beginning to suggest a few showers and storms
may develop east of the Colorado border. Confidence was not
strong enough to introduce any PoPs to the forecast. Quiet
conditions return overnight with lows in the 40s to around 50
degrees.

Another lee surface trough will move in along the Front Range and
strengthen into a low by Sunday evening. High temperatures are
forecast to be widespread in the 80s. Overnight lows are forecast to
be in the 40s to lower 50s. Another day of near critical to critical
fire weather conditions are forecast for Sunday afternoon as RH
values remain expected to fall into the low to mid teens across the
area with the lowest values generally along and west of a Benkelman
to Colby to Leoti line. Southerly to southeasterly winds could gust
to 35 mph. The area of concern for overlapping fire weather
conditions is west of the Colorado border. We will want to continue
keeping an eye on this day as a Red Flag Warning may be
necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Ahead of a low pressure system moving over the CWA late Monday, the
high temperatures during the day Monday will be in the 80s to low
90s. These warm temperatures combined with southerly winds sustained
around 25 kts and gusts up to around 40 kts will dry out the CWA.
Minimum RH values Monday will be near 7-10% for the entire Tri-State
area, save for Norton and Graham counties. Confidence for prolonged
critical fire weather Monday afternoon is about 50%. If the cold
front moves through in the early afternoon, prolonged critical fire
weather conditions will become less likely. Blowing dust will also
be a concern, but confidence for less than 1 mile visibility in
blowing dust is only about 10-15%.

Monday evening/night, the low pressure system will bring a cold
front through the CWA which will start a general cooling trend for
the remainder of the period. Precipitation is expected to accompany
the cold front, potentially starting as early as Monday afternoon in
the far northwestern CWA. Closer to 0-6Z Tuesday, thunderstorms are
forecast across most of the area and SPC has placed a 15% severe
potential for severe storms over the eastern CWA. PoPs are highest
Monday night (45-70%) and taper off to the north through the day
Tuesday. The northern CWA looks to have prolonged PoPs in the 20s
into Tuesday night, mainly driven by wrap-around moisture. The
southern CWA will see drier conditions throughout the day on
Tuesday.

Behind the cold front on Tuesday, northwesterly winds are expected
to strengthen. Sustained winds in the afternoon look to be
approaching 30 kts with gusts of 35-45 kts expected for the entire
Tri-State area. This could become a High Wind day, confidence is
around 35% for 50+kts winds, but as long as the precipitation
occurs, that would be the only hazard. If little to no precipitation
falls with the cold front, we could see RH values drop into the mid
to low teens leading to another critical fire weather day and
widespread blowing dust. Confidence for the "dry" option to occur is
less than 10%.

On Wednesday, the far southern counties will warm up near 80 as a
surface low moves through in the mid day. This will lead to elevated
fire weather to briefly critical fire weather conditions in the
afternoon ahead of the low and associated weak cold front. This low
does briefly increase PoPs across the area Wednesday evening, but
this is not a well organized system, so only scattered showers and
storms are expected.

By Friday, maximum temperatures will be capped in the 50s and there
is forecast to be about a persistent 20% chance of precipitation.
Overnight temperatures on Monday night will remain in the 40s, but
by Thursday night upper 20s to mid 30s are expected. This would lead
to some snow showers being possible in the west, where the cooler
temperatures are forecast. No accumulation is expected from these
snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for both
KMCK and KGLD.

Winds for KGLD will be south-southeast around 10 kts. Gusts to
20kts possible from 18Z to 00Z Saturday.

Winds for KMCK will be light/variable through 15z Friday, then
becoming south-southeast around 10-15 kts. Gusts to 20 kts will
be possible from 15Z to 00Z Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KMK