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000
FXUS63 KGLD 120354
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
954 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures tonight will be around 32 degrees.

- Elevated fire risk on Friday. The fire risk will be on the
  increase over the weekend with critical fire weather
  conditions possible on Monday.

- There will be a 15% chance for severe thunderstorms Monday
  east of a Oberlin to Oakley line.

- Very windy conditions Monday and Tuesday possible. Wind gusts
  in excess of 50 mph possible at times both days (40-60%).

- Colder temperatures returning to the Tri-State area late
  week. Current NBM guidance has a 40-70% chance for lows
  Thursday morning to be below 32 degrees west of Colby. Across
  northeast Colorado the chance for lows Thursday morning to be
  <28 is 40-50%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Earlier this morning an area of high pressure at the surface
was located over western Nebraska and an upper level ridge was
located from Nevada to Alberta Canada. CAMS were in good
agreement today with this surface high sliding east southeast
across northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas through tonight.
This will result in the gusty northwest winds this Thursday
afternoon decreasing to less than 10 mph before sunset. These
light winds will eventually veer to the south overnight as
surface pressures begin to fall across eastern Colorado in
response to improving northwesterly downslope flow. Light winds
and clear skies overnight will create favorable conditions for
temperatures to fall back at least to around 32 degrees. A few
locations could even observe a temperature early Friday morning
in the upper 20s. There is a 30-40% chance of lows below 30
degrees west and north of Goodland.

On Friday the surface winds will increase during the day as
surface pressures across eastern Colorado continue to fall and
boundary layer winds mix down to the surface. Even favoring the
latest HREF 90th percentile on the wind speed Friday afternoon
it appears that the winds will remain below 20 mph. Based on
this…even with afternoon humidity values falling back into the
teens only elevated fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The fire risk will be on the increase over the weekend. The
SREF continues the trend that the global ensembles had
advertised earlier in the week with an upper level ridge
building east across the Rockies and out into the Central Plains
as an upper low exits the Eastern Pacific and begins to move
across the Western United States. The short term ensembles also
are picking up on a weak upper level wave moving across this
upper ridge Saturday and as a result a weak surface boundary
will briefly move into northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.
The main impact from this weak upper wave/surface boundary over
the weekend is that the wind speeds may not be as strong as
previously thought, especially across northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska. Currently the NBM chance for wind gusts >30
mph in this location is 30% or less on Saturday. There is a
50-60% chance for wind gusts >30 mph for a few locations in
Colorado. On Sunday the chance for winds >30 mph will range
from 40-60%. Those with fire weather concerns should keep in
mind this weekend that although the winds may not be strong
enough for critical fire conditions, the widespread humidity
values forecast across northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas
supports areas of near critical fire risk, especially across
Colorado where the winds will be stronger.

On Monday some stronger winds will return as an area of low
pressure at the surface rapidly deepens in response to the next
significant upper low crosses the Rockies. Given the tight
pressure gradient developing and +40 knots winds in the boundary
layer mixing down to the surface it currently appears that the
NBM guidance may end up being a little low (mean south winds 20
to 30 mph. Gusts as high as 40 mph). I would be favoring at
least the 75th percentile (gusts at least 45-50mph) which given
the ongoing dry conditions would place most, if not all, of
northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska in
red flag warning conditions. Along with the dangerous fire
weather risk, areas of blowing dust will also be possible which
may reduce visibilities.

In addition to the fire weather and strong winds on Monday we
will also be monitoring the chance for severe thunderstorms
across portions of northwest Kansas ahead of this approaching
upper level low as it approaches the area from the west. The
ensemble clusters today still show some differences on timing of
this upper level storm system as it approaches the Tri-State
area. This timing issue will not make much of a difference when
it comes to the fire weather risk and strong winds developing
but it will be important when it comes to how far west the
chance for severe thunderstorms may occur. Currently a little
over half (50-60%) of the ensembles are fast enough where the
chance for surface cape to be >500j/kg and 0-500mb shear >30 is
less than 15%. The slower ensemble clusters (40-50%) allows a
little better moisture and shear to develop and has a 20-30%
chance for severe thunderstorms as far west as Oberlin and
Oakley. Currently I am leaning towards the further west solution
which appears to be how SPC is also trending towards.

Monday night the severe thunderstorm risk will move east into
central Kansas but the strong gusty winds will continue. In
addition to these strong winds there will also be a chance of
scattered rain showers spreading east across Colorado, western
Kansas and southwest Nebraska as this upper low deepens and
lifts northeast across western Kansas given the moisture
wrapping around this upper low. This round of rain will lift
northeast on Tuesday as the gusty winds continue. Based on the
latest ensemble trends it appears that that previous shift had
the right idea with that once this first upper level system
lifts northeast there will be another upper trough moving out of
the Pacific Northwest and approaching the Central Rockies mid
week. This next approaching upper level system will not only
bring a chance for rain to the Tri-State area mid week but also
it will usher in some colder air. As this colder air invades
eastern Colorado and possibly even portions of northwest Kansas
there will be a chance the rain may mix with or even change over
to snow before ending. Current NBM guidance has a 40-70% chance
for lows Thursday morning to be below 32 degrees west of Colby.
Across northeast Colorado the chance for lows Thursday morning
to be <28 is 40-50%

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period.

Winds for KGLD, south-southeast around 10kts. Gusts to 20kts
possible from 18z Fri-00z Sat.

Winds for KMCK, light/variable through 15z Friday, then
becoming southeast around 10kts. Gusts to 20kts possible from
15z Fri-01z Sat.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN