Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 131120
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for several counties south of I-70
  Today.

- Monday is forecast to be a multi-hazard day, including
  critical fire weather, blowing dust, and strong to severe
  thunderstorms.

- Strong northwest winds Tuesday, potentially up around 50 kts
  gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Throughout the day today the upper ridge will move across the Great
Plains along with a shortwave disturbance. A lee surface trough will
also move east across the area which may generate some low (~15-20%)
rain chances for those mainly north of I-70 and in the eastern half
of the area during the mid afternoon to early evening hours. Winds
are expected to increase with diurnal mixing; however, we will not
be very breezy with gusts only up to 30 mph out of the west.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal today with highs in the
upper 70s to around 90 degrees. RH values are also also forecast to
be lower with the warmer temperatures with values expected to fall
into the low to mid teens across the area this afternoon. That said,
near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible
across the Tri-State area this afternoon. Locales along and south of
US 40 are at risk for critical fire weather conditions, so the Red
Flag Warning for those counties will remain in place from 11 AM to 7
PM MDT. Gove County may experience an hour or two of overlapping
conditions; however, confidence was not strong enough to warrant
expanding the RFW with this forecast. Quiet conditions return
overnight with lows in the 40s.

Tomorrow the upper ridge will build back up over Colorado and the
Central High Plains while the surface trough slowly moves more
towards the Mississippi River Valley. Guidance suggests a cold front
will push south over the area during the afternoon to overnight
hours. The cold front will likely impact how low RH values are able
to drop for the northeast corner of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon. RH values are expected to fall into the teens across the
area with 15% and lower values likely occurring along and west of a
Benkelman to Colby to Leoti line. This will continue the trend of
near critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. Southerly to
southeasterly winds could gust to 25 mph. We will want to continue
keeping an eye on this day as a Red Flag Warning may be necessary.
High temperatures are forecast to be widespread in the 80s.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ahead of a low pressure system moving over the CWA late Monday, the
high temperatures during the day Monday will be in the 80s to
potentially low 90s. These warm temperatures combined with southerly
winds sustained around 25-30 kts and gusts up to around 40 kts will
dry out the CWA. Minimum RH values Monday will be near 7-10% for
locations along and west of a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE.
Confidence for prolonged critical fire weather Monday afternoon is
about 50% and increasing. If the cold front moves through in the
early afternoon Monday (~5-10% chance), prolonged critical fire
weather conditions will be less likely.

Blowing dust will also be a concern Monday afternoon, and confidence
for less than 1 mile visibility in blowing dust is slowly
increasing, currently about 15-20%. The blowing dust is generally
expected to be along and east of a line from Cheyenne Wells, CO to
Benkelman, NE. Prime times for blowing dust will be 21-01Z.

Monday evening/night, the low pressure system will bring a cold
front through the CWA which will start a general cooling trend for
the remainder of the period. The exact timing of the front is still
a bit murky, but most models are showing the FROPA starting around
3Z Tuesday from the northwest. Precipitation is expected to
accompany the cold front, starting Monday evening in the far
northwestern CWA. Closer to 0-6Z Tuesday, thunderstorms are forecast
across most of the area and SPC has placed a Slight risk for severe
storms over locations along and east of Highway 25. A dryline will
setup near the western extent of the Slight risk and be the trigger
for the storms. Later in the evening, the FROPA will add fuel to the
environment and potentially send the storms into overdrive with
additional shear. Soundings from the GFS and CMC-NH near Hill City,
KS show 500-1700 J/kg of MU and SFC CAPE with LCLs dropping to near
1000m near 3-9Z. 0-1 km shear around this time also increases to
above 15 kts. Mid-level lapse rates range from 8.5-9.5 C/km around 0-
15Z. These ingredients suggest a risk of significant hail and
potentially tornadic storms overnight. Climatologically speaking,
this is the time of year we start seeing increased nocturnal
convection. PoPs are highest Tuesday morning (45-70%) and taper off
to the north-northeast through the mid-day/afternoon Tuesday. PoPs
drop sharply around 6Z Wednesday; this is a slight change from 24
hours ago. Models are showing a stronger dry slot moving in and
putting a quicker stop to the precipitation.

Behind the cold front on Tuesday, northwesterly winds are expected
to strengthen. Sustained winds look to be around 30 kts with gusts
of 35-48 kts expected for the most of the Tri-State area. The NBM is
showing two separate surges of higher winds, the first near 12Z and
the second around 18-21Z. The operational NBM is really the only
guidance showing the 12Z surge, but most models are agreeing on the
afternoon winds. This could become a High Wind day, especially in
the western CWA. Confidence is around 40% for 50+kts winds.

If majority of the CWA sees more than a few hundredths of
precipitation, the strong winds would be the only hazard Tuesday mid-
day and afternoon, after the morning storms. If little to no
precipitation falls, especially in the southwestern CWA, RH values
will drop into the mid to low teens leading to another critical fire
weather day and widespread blowing dust. Confidence for the "dry"
option to occur has increased from 24 hours ago due to the more
pronounced dry-slot, and is now around 25% chance of occurrence.

On Wednesday, the far southern counties will warm up near 80 as a
surface low moves through in the mid-day. This will lead to elevated
fire weather to briefly critical fire weather conditions in the
afternoon ahead of the low and associated weak cold front. Winds
have come down from the day shift`s forecast and RH values have
slightly increased, lowing the threat of fire weather concerns for
Wednesday. The low does increase PoPs across the area Wednesday
evening, but this is not a well organized system, so only scattered
showers and storms are expected.

A weak shortwave looks to move over Thursday evening and give us a
slight chance of showers into Friday morning, mainly in the northern
CWA. Due to the cooling temperatures, there could be a rain/snow mix
in eastern Colorado with the locations to the east seeing only rain.

By Friday, maximum temperatures will be capped in the 50s with
similar conditions on Saturday. Overnight temperatures on Monday
night will remain in the 40s, but by Thursday night upper 20s to mid
30s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected over both KMCK and KGLD through the
12Z TAF period. LLWS over KGLD out of the southwest is expected
to dissipate by 14Z over the terminal. Winds will slowly become
westerly and then finally northwesterly with a period of higher
sustained winds around 10-15 kts for both terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A red flag warning remains in effect today (Saturday) for the
southwestern portions of the area. Westerly winds gusting up to
20-25 kts are expected this afternoon with minimum RH values
dropping to near 11%. RH values will begin rebounding around 0Z,
and by 1Z the critical fire weather threat is expected to have
ended.

Sunday afternoon will see dry conditions again, but the winds
will be weaker. Southerly winds briefly gusting up to 20 kts
will give way to elevated fire weather concerns, but prolonged
critical fire weather is not expected.

Monday will be a multi-hazard day, including prolonged critical
fire weather conditions. Starting around 18Z, the southern CWA
is forecast to see critical fire weather conditions begin. As
the afternoon progresses, southerly winds will gust up around 40
kts as RH values drop to under 10% for locations along and west
of a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE. Fire-fighting efforts
will be made more difficult by blowing dust that is expected to
reduce visibility. A strong cold front will move through in
evening, likely around 3-12Z Tuesday and will shift winds from
the south to the northwest. Strong winds are forecast to
continue behind the cold front Tuesday. Strong to severe storms
are also forecast Monday night.

If little to no precipitation falls Monday night and Tuesday
morning in the southern CWA, critical fire weather will be
possible again Tuesday afternoon, but not as likely (25%
chance).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 648 PM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Saturday, April 13th, here is the list of records
for this day:
a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE.

Goodland, KS........90F in 2006

McCook, NE..........92F in 1936

Burlington, CO......87F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......92F in 2023


With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Sunday, April 14th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........88F in 2017

McCook, NE..........92F in 1940

Burlington, CO......90F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......94F in 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KMK
FIRE WEATHER...CA
CLIMATE...Trigg


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