Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262013
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
213 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend begins tomorrow and continues over the weekend
  before the next system moves in, bringing precipitation
  chances and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The low pressure system which brought active weather to the region
Sunday-Monday continues to move off towards the east-northeast,
leaving the area under a west-northwest flow aloft. With mostly
clear skies overhead, true color satellite reveals the extent of
snow cover across the region - Yuma, Dundy, Greeley, and western
parts of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado have little if any
coverage with the remainder of the CWA seeing at least some
coverage, highest across east-northeast portions. Temperatures
currently range from low 30s east to upper 30s-low 40s west and will
continue to be impacted by snow cover for some locales through at
least tomorrow.

At the surface, high pressure is nudging south through the Plains.
Winds are relatively light out of the northwest this afternoon,
expected to veer towards the south tonight as temperatures fall into
the teens northeast to middle 20s northwest. With some moisture
working in along with a shortwave this afternoon into tomorrow, will
be looking at some low chances (generally around 15-20%) for a snow
or rain/snow shower or two to develop, but at least some increased
cloud cover can be expected to move through the area. An upper level
ridge then amplifies upstream. Temperatures are forecast to range in
the middle 40s tomorrow afternoon where snowpack will persist to
middle 50s outside snowpacked areas. Lows drop into the low-middle
20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Zonal flow is expected at the start of the long term period as the
upper level ridge is moving over the area. Drier/warmer conditions
will prevail, and most of the snowpack is expected to have melted or
will likely melt Thursday-Friday as temperatures climb near to above
normal. Low end fire weather concerns Thursday, generally along/west
of Hwy 27, where RH falls into the 15-20% range and south-southwest
winds gust 20-25 mph. Low pressure diving south along the west coast
Friday-Saturday, then moving into the southwest CONUS Sunday-Monday
will have flow aloft backing towards the southwest. Fire weather
concerns creep back into west-southwest portions on Sunday as
temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s, RH falls into the
15-20% range, and south- southwest winds gust 25-35 mph. With
the associated cold front anticipated to move through sometime
early week, temperatures will fall back to near to below normal
and parts of the area will see a few chances (~20-30%) for rain
or rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
throughout the 18Z TAF period. Northwesterly winds this afternoon at
around 6-12 knots sustained will veer towards the southeast around
or shortly after sunset this evening, then veering further towards
the south through the night. Ceilings at around 7kft-10kft are
forecast overnight. Continued low confidence in patchy fog
development in vicinity of KMCK tonight-tomorrow morning that
could cause some brief/slight reductions to visibility, but
currently unanticipated to result in flight category reduction.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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