Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260105
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
705 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The winter storm will continue to affect the region through
  tonight. Blizzard conditions expected over much of northeast
  Colorado, northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, where
  travel will be difficult or impossible.

- Additional snow accumulations of up to 3 inches will be
  possible, with the heaviest accumulations along and east of a
  Trenton to Colby to Gove line.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The first row of Nebraska/Kansas counties (Dundy south through
Greeley county) have had their Blizzard Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories cancelled as snow and blowing snow continue
to slowly move east. Roadways will remain icy and snowpacked in
spots, making for difficult travel.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

As the area of low pressure moves northeast across Kansas and into
Iowa, wrap around moisture continues to bring light to moderate
snowfall to the Tri-State Area through tonight. As of 1:30 PM MDT,
radar reflectivities are filling in along and east of Highway 25
where majority of this rounds snowfall is expected for the area.
Locales along and east of a Trenton to Colby to Gove line could see
another 1-3" of snow tonight while locales to the west could see up
to 1". So far with the CAMs, the NAMnest is handling things the best
followed by the rap. That said, locales west of Highway 25 should
see any light snow showers end by 9 PM MDT while those to the east
could see the light to moderate snow exit the area around 2-3 AM MDT
(3-4 AM CDT). North-northwest wind with gusts of 40 to 55 mph remain
a concern through roughly 6 PM MDT. Once the sun sets and the core
of the system is further away from the area, winds will
gradually decrease through the overnight hours with gusts of
20-40 by midnight. With the continuation of hazards, the
Blizzard Warning and Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to
continue through 1 AM CDT/Midnight MDT. Overnight lows are
expected to fall into the upper single digits to mid teens
across the area with wind chills in the single digits above and
below zero through Tuesday morning.

Behind the current system, a weak surface ridge will move across the
Rockies and into the High Plains bringing a brief break in our
winter weather conditions. Tomorrow is expected to be dry through
the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A shortwave
trough looks to move over the Rockies behind the weak ridge bringing
another round of light snow chances with (low confidence)to east-
central Colorado during the evening hours. Confidence is low for any
accumulation given the low amount of moisture in the lower to mid
levels of the atmosphere. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the
mid teens to lower 20s. Wind chills are forecast to fall into the
lower teens to the upper single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The area is under west-northwest flow aloft at the start of the long
term period as the trough continues its eastward progression and an
upstream ridge becomes situated over the western CONUS. Very low
chance for a rogue shower or two to develop during the day
Wednesday, but at least some increased cloud cover is expected
before drier/warmer conditions prevail during the latter part of the
work week and into the weekend. Some fire weather concerns may
return as RH drops into the teens west of Hwy 25 Thursday-Friday.
Winds gust 20-30 mph Thursday, only to around 15-20 mph Friday.
Towards the end of the period, an upper level low digging south
along the west coast will be the next system to watch for a return
of more active weather for the area. Temperatures remain below
normal Wednesday, becoming above normal Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

KGLD...sub VFR conditions are possible from taf issuance through
01z due to snow and blowing snow with northwest winds gusting to
35kts. After 01z, VFR conditions are expected. Northwest winds
gusting to 35kts at 01z, fall to around 11-12kts from 12z-20z.
After 21z, winds become light and variable.

KMCK...sub VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through
04z with light snow and blowing snow along with northwest winds
gusting to 35kts or so. After 05z, VFR conditions are expected.
Northwest winds gusting to around 30kts at 05z fall to around
13kts by 12z. From 14z-18z, northwest winds are forecast to gust
to around 25kts. After 19z, northwest winds around 10kts become
light and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ002-003-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-015-
     016-028-029-042.
CO...None.
NE...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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