Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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280
FXUS63 KGLD 202040
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Through Tonight: DPVA attendant potent shortwave energy tracking
northward through eastern Colorado (on the eastern periphery of an
upper level low centered invof the 4-Corners region), increasingly
diffluent flow aloft, strengthening low-level warm advection, and
marginal destabilization (MUCAPE 500-750 J/kg) have contributed
to the development of widespread elevated convection in eastern CO
and western KS today. A few rounds of elevated convection are
likely to develop over western KS this afternoon/evening as
additional shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper low
progresses northward through the Tri-State area. Brief instances
of small hail (~1/4") will be possible this afternoon and evening
in association with any updraft capable of producing lightning.
Expect convection to decrease in coverage late tonight as the
upper level low slowly traverses the Rockies and the focus for
convective development shifts E/SE into central/eastern KS. Re-
development of more stratified precipitation will be possible on
the N/NW periphery of the upper low (primarily northeast CO and
southwest NE) early Saturday morning, where a rate-driven p-type
change from rain to snow cannot be ruled out (assuming precip of
sufficient intensity/duration). Even if a p-type change occurs,
accumulation of any kind would be very unlikely given air temperatures
at/above freezing, essentially neutral thermal advection, and ground
temperatures well above freezing.

Sat/Sat Night: Surface based convection (scattered showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm) is expected to develop over the
Tri-State area during the day Saturday as the upper level low
progresses into western KS. Weak deep-layer shear under/invof the
upper low and a cool /marginally unstable/ airmass will preclude
a potential for severe weather, though pea size hail cannot be
ruled out. Convection will dissipate by late Saturday afternoon as
the upper low progresses southeast toward OKC/Tulsa and mid-level
warming /subsidence/ commences.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Sunday brings a transition to the pattern with retreating low
pressure to our southeast. Flow aloft remains northerly through the
day with surface flow out of the south to southeast. Dry weather
will prevail through the day on Sunday and into the first half of
Monday.

Upper flow becomes zonal by Monday afternoon as an upper low,
situated over the northern Rockies, begins to influence the region.
This will bring a cold front through the CWA Monday night and into
Tuesday morning. Looking at showers pushing through the area during
the overnight hours with a slight chance of a very brief change over
to mixed rain and snow in the western portions of Kit Carson and
Yuma Counties. This precipitation will wind down through the early
morning hours with dry weather and gradual clearing expected during
the afternoon.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday through Friday with gradually
warmer temperatures each day. Look for highs in the 60s on Wednesday
with 70s on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Conditions will deteriorate this afternoon through tonight as an
upper level low (centered invof the 4-Corners at 16Z) tracks east
across the Rockies and widespread showers progress from CO into
KS/NE. Occasional thunder will be possible this afternoon,
primarily between 18-00Z. Showers will remain possible through the
end of the TAF period, though a general decrease in coverage is
expected during the day Saturday. Southeasterly winds sustained at
20-25 knots with gusts as high as 35-40 knots are expected this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will back to the ESE/E and
decrease to 15-25 knots overnight, becoming ENE/NE at 10-20 knots
during the day Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...VINCENT



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