Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

Rest of Today: As of 20Z, extremely isolated convection has
developed in association with marginal to moderate diurnal
destabilization, little/no CIN, weak convergence along the
dryline, and weak convergence invof a subtle surface trough
extending from northeast CO into eastern NE. Updrafts are expected
to remain isolated, unorganized, and short-lived in nature given
weak deep-layer forcing /weak flow aloft/, mid-level warming
attendant an H7-H5 ridge building in the lee of the Rockies, and
strong DCAPE - which suggests downdrafts will quickly isolate/cut-
off updrafts.

Sat/Sat night: Expect above normal temperatures and dry conditions
as the upper level ridge building in the lee of the Rockies shifts
eastward into the Plains in advance of a slow moving upper level
low progressing ashore the CA coast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

Long range guidance indicates that the ridge aloft will be
suppressed Sun-Mon as the aforementioned upper level low stalls,
slowly weakens over the Intermountain West, then ejects ENE across
the Central Plains on Tue. Above normal temperatures will persist
early in the period (Sun), however, it is difficult to ascertain
whether or not this trend will continue through early/mid week as
W/SW flow aloft overspreads the Rockies/High Plains and chances
for diurnal convection increase.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 945 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions with clear or mostly clear skies will rule through
the TAF period. Light/variable winds today and tonight will
become southerly at 10-15 knots by ~15Z Saturday morning and
strengthen to 15-25 knots Saturday afternoon.




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