Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
704 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Issued at 701 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Updated the forecast to trim off the western portion of the Dust
Storm warning. As wind gusts decrease somewhat as the front moves
further away, the areas of blowing dust and severely diminished
visibilities are improving. Locations still within the dust storm
warning could see gusts over 65 mph as the area of strongest winds
progresses eastward over the next few hours.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Latest upper air and satellite show an upper level trough moving
east onto the plains.  At the surface a warm front was moving east
across the Tri-State Area.  Behind the front west winds were gusting
up to 60 MPH.  The high winds had created a corridor of blowing dust
extending from south of CO Springs northeast to Yuma.  To the
northwest a cold front was approaching.

Tonight high winds will spread from west to east behind a cold
front.  The highest winds will be in the evening when the base of
the upper level trough moves overhead.  The high wind threat will
end after midnight as the trough shifts east of the forecast area.
The threat for blowing dust will continue into the evening. As
mentioned earlier, confidence for where/if the blowing dust will
occur is low due to the recent snow. There is a corridor of dust
over the East Central CO, but that is mainly elevated allowing the
visibility to remain around 3 miles.

Wednesday the winds will be breezy but only gust 30-40 MPH during
the latter half of the morning/early afternoon.  During the
afternoon the winds will decline as the low level jet moves east of
the forecast area. Due to relative humidity falling to 20% or so
over the southwest part of the forecast area, elevated fire
conditions are likely. Considered issuing a fire weather watch but
the winds decrease as the relative humidity falls.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

In the extended(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...
Active weather pattern is expected for the period as another
strong H5 low is expected to sweep across the area with favored
track taking it to the south of the CWA, putting area in favorable
area for significant precipitation. Best chances look to be on
Friday and Friday night before low begins to dig to the south and
away from the area. Overall current forecast looked pretty good
with only marginal changes needed to overall timing and PoPs.

Probably the most pressing concern will be whether or not precip
will change from rain to snow across the area. Last 4 cycles of
GEFS ensemble data indicates precipitation should stay rain across
all but the western fringes of CWA and even there the rain seems
to dominant weather type. Given the broad area of southeasterly
flow, will be tough for cold air to overspread area fast enough to
result in any significant accumulations and feel confident that
overall winter threat will be small.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

GLD has blowing dust with visibilities between 1 and 2 miles due
to sustained wind speeds over 40 kts with gusts over 60 kts
behind a cold front that should continue through the next few
hours with MVFR conditions due to lower clouds. After 03Z, winds
will begin to decrease and the lower clouds will diminish with a
return to VFR conditions. Winds around 30 kts will continue into
Wednesday morning.

MCK is expected to remain VFR with Southeast winds turning
northwest between 02-03Z as the cold front moves through. Gusty
winds around 30kts will continue through the remainder of the TAF


KS...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for

     Dust Storm Warning until 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for

CO...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for

     Dust Storm Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.



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