Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KGLD 130910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
310 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Today/Tonight: Little change in the overall synoptic pattern
compared to yesterday. Aside from weak low-level warm advection
in eastern CO (on the W/NW of an H85 thermal ridge over the
Central/Southern Plains), little if any additional forcing will be
present over the Tri-State area. Expect dry conditions to persist
with highs similar to yesterday. S/SW low-level flow will
strengthen over eastern CO and western KS late tonight as the H85
thermal ridge shifts further south into TX. With a persistent
southerly breeze, expect overnight lows warmer than previous
nights, in the mid/upper 20s to lower 30s.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: The upper level ridge over the
Intermountain West will shift east of the Rockies on Wed as an
expansive upper level low progresses slowly eastward ashore the
Pacific coast. Low-level southerly flow /warm advection/ will
strengthen over the Tri-State area during the day as a lee
cyclone deepens over eastern CO in response to increasingly
diffluent flow aloft over the Rockies. With the above in mind,
expect dry conditions and much warmer temperatures with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows Wed night in the mid/upper

Thursday/Thursday night: Challenging forecast. 00Z guidance
suggests that a potent shortwave will move ashore the central/
southern CA coast Wed night. After rounding the base of the
aforementioned upper low, guidance indicates that this feature
will eject ENE across the 4-Corners region (Thursday) to the High
Plains of CO/KS (Thursday night), and that the lee cyclone in
eastern CO will evolve into a more robust /mature/ mid-latitude
cyclone over the Tri-State area Thu/Thu night. Temperatures and
precipitation chances across the region will be tied to the
precise evolution of the lee cyclone, a feature that will not
exist for another 24-36 hrs, whose subsequent development, in
turn, will highly depend upon the evolution of numerous small
amplitude waves circumnavigating a large cyclonic gyre slowly
progressing ashore the Pacific coast. With the above in mind,
confidence in sensible weather conditions is extremely low,
particularly late Thu/Thu night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

There will be a more active pattern at the end of the work week,
with two opportunities for precipitation. A warming trend ends on
Friday, and cooler temperatures follow through the weekend.

On Thursday, dry weather starts off the day with upper ridging over
the High Plains. This changes when a disturbance breaks down the
western side of the ridge and a cold front approaches the region at
the surface. Precipitation looks to be generated by this system
Thursday evening into Friday, mainly north of Interstate 70.
Predominantly rain is expected, but any amounts will be light.
Dry weather returns by Friday night when the first disturbance
passes east of the area and weak ridging redevelops behind.

Meanwhile, an upper trough strengthens over the west coast and
progresses east through Monday. There are still plenty of model
differences regarding this second system, with some guidance
depicting it as a closed low and others as an open wave. However, it
does look to bring the region a decent shot at precipitation
Saturday afternoon through Monday (with the best chances Sunday
night). The area will mostly see rain, transitioning to light snow
Sunday night. Will continue to monitor.

Regarding fire weather: Low relative humidity values return each day
during this period, especially south of Interstate 70, but winds are
not impressive. Day to keep an eye on is Friday when locations
south of Highway 40 could see a bump up in wind speeds.

Temperatures peak in the 70s on Thursday before a cold front cools
highs into the 60s for Friday through Sunday. Another shot of cold
air filters in on Monday, dropping temperatures into the 50s. Low
temperatures are mainly in the 30s throughout the period, with a few
locations in the upper 20s Sunday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Initially light
and variable or light easterly winds will become SE/SSE at 10-15
knots at GLD this afternoon. 10-15 knot SSE/SE winds (perhaps
gusting up to 20 knots) will gradually veer to the south tonight.
At MCK, light/variable or light E/SE winds will persist longer
compared to GLD (perhaps through the afternoon), becoming SSE/SE
at 10 knots AOA sunset and gradually veering to the south




AVIATION...VINCENT is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.