Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Trough will eject across the Rockies and close off as it moves
along the Kansas/Oklahoma border tonight. Moisture advection ahead
of it is resulting in a narrow corridor of surface based
instability to move northward along the Kansas Colorado border
this afternoon. As forcing begins to increase, expected scattered
showers to develop as well as a few isolated thunderstorms.
Instability appears too weak to support severe storms. Overnight,
rain will change to snow in northeast Colorado and the rain/snow
line will slowly move into northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska
through Monday morning. Snow amounts are expected to be in the 2
to 4 inch range in northeast Colorado, and drop off rapidly to the
east where changeover will occur later. The one caveat with the
snow amounts will be the potential for convection. Cannot
completely rule out some higher snow amounts if thundersnow was to
develop, and the models do show some bullseye snow amounts
approaching 10 inches. Do not think those kind of snow amounts
will be widespread, but will need to closely monitor. The other
impact will be wind and blowing snow. As winds shift to the north
on the backside tonight, they will increase to 20-30 mph with
gusts over 40 mph. Again, may see some localized reductions in the
blowing snow to as low as 1/2 a mile, mainly in northeast Colorado
and along the Colorado border area in northwest Kansas/southwest
Nebraska. Decided to issue a winter weather advisory for northeast
Colorado where best confidence of reaching 3 inches exists and for
the potential for blowing snow.

Rain and snow will continue through Monday afternoon before ending
Monday night. No significant accumulations are expected during
that time as the upper low moves away and winds will gradually

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

For the extended period...H5 ridge shifting eastward across the
Plains region for Thursday and Thursday night gives way to a quick
moving shortwave that will traverse the region Friday/Friday night.
high pressure returns for the start of the upcoming weekend. The
region will see another couple shortwaves moving fairly quickly
across the region for the latter portion of the weekend into next

For precip...the first system for Fri/Fri night carries more areal
coverage due to its track across the region. Looking for mainly
showers as it passes. Some weak instability could bring a few
isolated trw late in the day...for mainly southern areas. With more
zonal flow over the region Sat night/Sun for the second
shortwave...precip makes only a glancing blow to northern border
zones. Will have light rw transition to light sw for this. The final
system working into the beginning of next week still will only have
low chance pops for a rw/sw mix. Latest GFS/ECMWF runs do lack
consistency for amt of expected QPF...but a rw/sw transition looks
most likely with little to no accum at this time based on expected

Other potential wx issues/concerns for the extended will be the
potential for near critical Fire Wx conditions for Friday into the
weekend. Those areas not seeing any forthcoming precip will be at
most risk...especially for locales south of Interstate 70. RH
reading will be in the 15-20 percent range w/ winds reaching
criteria...especially for Friday afternoon. The other periods will
be off slightly.

For temps...70s for highs Thursday/Friday will trend down to the 60s
over the weekend and 50s by next week. Overnight lows will trend
from 40s Thursday night to around the mid/upper 20s by next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

MVFR/IFR ceilings and rain or a wintry mix of precipitation are
expected at the GLD/MCK terminals through 15-18Z today. VFR
conditions will return this afternoon by 21-22Z. At GLD, NE winds
at 20 knots will become northerly at 20-30 knots with gusts to
35-38 knots by ~09Z this morning and persist through ~18Z, then
decrease to 15-20 knots during the afternoon. At MCK, ENE winds at
15-20 knots will become northerly at 20-30 knots by ~09Z and
persist through 15-18Z, then decrease to 15 knots this afternoon.


CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ090-091.



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