000
FXUS63 KGLD 110758
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
158 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning Thursday for Red Willow, Norton and Graham
  counties.

- A prolonged period of above and much above normal
  temperatures, increasing wind and low relative humidity will
  create critical and near critical fire weather conditions
  across various if not all of the Tri-State area Friday through
  Wednesday.

- Rainfall chances increase into the 20%-50% range depending on
  the day Monday through Wednesday. A wetting rain is currently
  not forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Upper ridge will build from the west today. The ridge axis will
move across the area on Friday. Southwest flow then follows on
Saturday. No precipitation is expected during the period.
Temperatures will be near normal today, then much above normal
Friday and Saturday. Probably going to fall a few degrees shy of
record highs on Saturday.

Main concern through the entire short term period will be fire
weather. Today, the concern will be east of Highway 83. HREF
probabilities of meeting 25 mph gust criteria in that area is up
to 50% through about 19z, but then diminish to less than 20% by
22z. Probabilities of meeting 15% relative humidity threshold
peaks at around 20% during the afternoon. As a result,
confidence is rather low in meeting critical criteria.
Nonetheless, will continue the Red Flag Warning since near
critical conditions stand a better chance of being met and to
line up with neighbors to the east with slightly higher
criteria. On Friday, concern will be west of Highway 83.
Probabilities of meeting 15% relative humidity threshold are
likely in northeast Colorado, but drop off rapidly further east.
However, probabilities for wind gusts of greater than 25 mph
are currently near zero. Finally, on Saturday, switching over to
the NBM, mean RH minimums drop well into the teens in just
about the entire area but are lowest west of Highway 83.
However, winds speeds are less certain, with low probabilities
for 25 mph or greater across parts of northeast Colorado as well
as southeast of a Hill City to Scott City line where
probabilities are somewhat higher. So confidence remains low in
meeting critical criteria, though certainly near critical
conditions will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The long term is expected to start off dry through Sunday afternoon
as an upper ridge axis moves over the Great Plains. Over the
weekend, a lee surface trough will move in along the Front Range and
strengthen into a low by Sunday evening. High temperatures are
forecast to be widespread in the 80s. Overnight lows are forecast to
be in the 40s to lower 50s. With the above normal temperatures also
comes the lower RH values leading to some near critical to
perhaps locally critical fire weather concerns. RH values
remain expected to fall into the low to mid teens across the
area with the lowest values generally along and west of a
Benkelman to Colby to Gove line. The limiting factor for
critical fire weather conditions looks to be the winds which may
gust up to 25 mph out of the south and southeast. We will want
to continue keeping an eye on this day as it may be possible for
winds to better mix down and increase above the 25 mph
criteria.

As the lee trough develops into a low pressure core overnight
Sunday, it will begin it move northeast towards Nebraska. During the
afternoon to overnight hours Monday, there is chance (PoPs up to
50%) for rain and some storms across the Tri-State area. The best
confidence for severe weather with the latest guidance keeps the
areas of concern to the east of the CWA; however, it`s possible (low
confidence) that a few strong to severe storms may develop along and
east of Highway 25 during the afternoon to evening hours. Severe
parameters do not currently look very impressive with CAPE below 500
J/kg and weak shear at ~15-20 kts during the afternoon. There could
be some nocturnal activity however as CAPE and shear are currently
expected to increase during the evening/overnight hours per the GFS.
For the dust threat mentioned previously, models have sort of
flipped around and decreased the threat slightly for the afternoon.
Should winds increase as well as the 0-2 km lapse rate, those along
and south of I-70. We will continue to keep an eye on this potential
over the coming days given the dry soils we have had lately. Most of
the area could experience critical fire weather conditions Monday
afternoon should the rain/storms not develop. RH values are expected
to once again fall into the low to mid teens across the area with
southwesterly wind gusts up to 45 mph possible. Temperatures on
Monday remain above normal with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

As the system wraps around and another trough forms along the Front
Range midweek, more chances for rain and perhaps a few storms will
be possible on Tuesday. On Wednesday, those along/north of I-70
could see some light rain with higher elevations in Colorado to
along the KS/NE/CO border seeing some rain/snow mix. Confidence is
low (PoPs of 30% and less) for this moisture to occur given some
uncertainty on how quickly the first system moves out of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday with highs in the
upper 60s to the mid 70s and the upper 50s to lower 70s on
Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s to the mid 40s Tuesday
and mid 20s to upper 30s Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 920 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Winds, northerly around 10-20kts through 09z Thursday, then
northwest around 10kts. Gusts to 20kts possible from 16z-22z.

For KMCK, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Winds, north around 10kts through 10z Thursday, then mainly
northwest around 10-15kts. Gusts up to 30 kts are possible from
14z Thu-00z Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Saturday, April 13th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........90F in 2006

McCook, NE..........92F in 1936

Burlington, CO......87F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......92F in 2023

Colby, KS...........87F in 1936

Tribune, KS.........88F in 1946

Yuma, CO............83F in 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...