Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
401 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 332 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Update to forecast for addition of thunderstorm chances Sunday
evening. This follows issuance from SPC D3 outlook show Marginal
Risk for eastern portions of the CWA...with some general thunder
probabilities for the remainder of the CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are cloudy as a
surface low moves slowly across the area. Temps are ranging widely
with 30s to near 40F west with northerly flow over the the
50s east where southerly flow persists on the east side of the low.

Precipitation is starting to fill in over the CWA as the low complex
continues trek east-northeastward. Looking for temps to remain in
check to keep rain as main p-type with some light snow showers west
over NE CO....with less than a half inch accum. Looking for precip
to taper from west to east thru the day.

Other wx concern for the CWA today will be the strong gradient winds
that will mix at times to bring sustained numbers near 25 to 50 mph
with gusts nearing 70 mph. Have continued High Wind Warning because
of this. Those areas seeing these high winds along with little to no
precip...could see blowing dust crop up.

From tonight on thru Saturday night...amplified H5 ridge
building/moving over the Plains region will provide dry conditions
before the next round of precip affects the region.

Near critical fire wx conditions will persist over NE CO Saturday
afternoon w/ RH readings in the mid to upper teens.

For Sunday and Sunday night...expected dry conditions during the day
to give way to a quick moving surface low/shortwave that models
shift across the Southern Plains along the KS/OK border. With the
CWA on the north side of this system as it moves east...and ample
QPF feeding into the area...expecting rain to change to snow going
into the evening hours Sunday as cold air wraps into the area. There
looks to be some weak instability on the warm side of the system
with the possibility of convection...especially for eastern zones.
SPC currently has this area in a Marginal Risk for severe. Will hold
off on mention of thunder to allow next shift fresh look to see if
instability is consistent.

For temps...increasing trend for daytime highs with ridge moving
over the area. this will start off as 50s on Friday to 60s by
Sunday. Overnight lows will trend up as well with 20s tonight and
30s this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Mar16 2018

Rain and snow showers will continue on Monday into Monday night.
With additional totals up to an inch. Tuesday, winds shift to the
northwest increasing CAA into the area. Expecting strong winds to
persist a bit, but with such wet post frontal conditions not
expecting any fire weather concerns for the area on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Thursday, may be a concern as the Tri-State area will
have dried out and temperatures climb to the mid to upper 60s.

Friday, could be our next potential system, but model guidance in
the far extended still doesn`t agree. Went straight superblend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued
at 1140 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

For KGLD...VFR/MVFR mix as area will see clouds/showers on NW
flow as system exits region during the forecast period. Looking
for ceilings to drop down to BKN020-030 at times after 14z
Friday. Winds...WSW around 15kts thru 09z then WNW 20-30kts w/
gusts nearing 50kts after 17z.

For KMCK...VFR/MVFR mix as area will see clouds/showers on
easterly flow as system exits region during the forecast period.
Looking for ceilings to drop down to BKN010 at times from 14z-
23z. Winds ENE 15-30kts becoming NNE by 14z at 15-30kts.


KS...High Wind Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-

CO...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ090>092.

NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for NEZ079.



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