Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
156 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Trough will eject across the Rockies and close off as it moves
along the Kansas/Oklahoma border tonight. Moisture advection ahead
of it is resulting in a narrow corridor of surface based
instability to move northward along the Kansas Colorado border
this afternoon. As forcing begins to increase, expected scattered
showers to develop as well as a few isolated thunderstorms.
Instability appears too weak to support severe storms. Overnight,
rain will change to snow in northeast Colorado and the rain/snow
line will slowly move into northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska
through Monday morning. Snow amounts are expected to be in the 2
to 4 inch range in northeast Colorado, and drop off rapidly to the
east where changeover will occur later. The one caveat with the
snow amounts will be the potential for convection. Cannot
completely rule out some higher snow amounts if thundersnow was to
develop, and the models do show some bullseye snow amounts
approaching 10 inches. Do not think those kind of snow amounts
will be widespread, but will need to closely monitor. The other
impact will be wind and blowing snow. As winds shift to the north
on the backside tonight, they will increase to 20-30 mph with
gusts over 40 mph. Again, may see some localized reductions in the
blowing snow to as low as 1/2 a mile, mainly in northeast Colorado
and along the Colorado border area in northwest Kansas/southwest
Nebraska. Decided to issue a winter weather advisory for northeast
Colorado where best confidence of reaching 3 inches exists and for
the potential for blowing snow.

Rain and snow will continue through Monday afternoon before ending
Monday night. No significant accumulations are expected during
that time as the upper low moves away and winds will gradually

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Tuesday through Friday...broad upper level ridge slowly expands
eastward across the area allowing for a warming trend each day. High
temperatures Tuesday look to be in the low to mid 50s with 60s on
Wednesday, 70s Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will be coldest
on Tuesday night with low to upper 20s followed by low to mid 30s
Wednesday night and low 40s Thursday night.

Critical fire weather conditions remain possible Friday as gusty
west to west-northwest winds combine with much above normal
temperatures and relative humidity in the low teens to mid 20s.

Saturday through Sunday...current forecast is for cooler
temperatures to move into the area with a bit better chance of
precipitation. High temperatures Saturday in the mid 60s north to
around 70 south. Low temperatures Saturday night in the low to upper
30s. Highs on Sunday in the upper 50s north to mid 60s south.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible across far eastern
Colorado Saturday. Near critical/critical fire weather conditions
possible Sunday generally along and west of the Colorado Kansas


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Potent upper low will bring a variety of weather to the terminals
beginning later this afternoon and through tomorrow. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop by mid to late
afternoon and increase in coverage this evening. As colder air
filters in on the backside of the system tonight, rain may change
to or mix with snow. Convection may turn to rain to snow faster
and may result in locally heavy brief bursts of snow. Northerly
winds gusting to 30-35 kts may produce areas of blowing snow
overnight and into Monday morning.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for KSZ041.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ254.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Monday
     for COZ090-091.



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