000
FXUS64 KHUN 271454
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
954 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

An East Coast ridge will continue to hold sway across the TN
Valley region today with dry weather conditions expected. Weak
shortwave impulses riding NEWRD along the western flank of the
ridge will induce lift aloft, resulting in mid-level clouds at
times, and even light returns on radars that will largely be in
the form of virga. ESE flow around the SW flank of the sfc high
will push W Atlantic air across the SE and into the TN Valley,
keeping temperatures perhaps a little suppressed from yesterday`s
values. Although, a W-E gradient will exist and highs may only
top out in the upper 70s in parts of the east compared to low/mid
80s elsewhere. A strong pressure gradient between the East Coast
Ridge and a West CONUS/High Plains trough will produce breezy
conditions today. The UAH RaDAPS wind profilers have shown 30kt+
winds at ~500m elevation, but so far no tendency for those to
lower through time. The continuation of deeper mixing does give
some concern that we may get close to Wind Advisory criteria,
however, the broader scale pressure gradient is expected to relax
a little during the day. So, winds could remain near steady-state.


A few minor changes were made to most weather elements to align
with the latest observations, and updated grids have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Little change in the overall wx pattern is again expected heading
into the weekend period, as the upper ridge axis translates more
into the mid/southern Atlantic states and high pressure settles
into the southern Atlantic Basin. This should translate into
relatively breezy conditions continuing into the new week, with
gusts around 20-30 MPH at times. Partly/mostly cloudy skies will
also continue across the central TN Valley, given some lingering
moisture below H7 prevailing into the new work week. Seasonably
warm temps look to prevail both Sun/Mon, with highs predom in the
lower 80s/near 80F and overnight lows into early Tue trending in
the upper 50s/mid 60s. Increasing showers/tstms will then return
to the forecast Mon/Mon night, as the influx of moisture into the
area strengthens and an upper trough pattern traverses eastward
into the Mid South/TN Valley areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and storms will come to an end from west to east across the
area on Tuesday as the shortwave lifts northeast and upper ridging
begins to push east across the Deep South. South/southwesterly flow
will keep a more tropical airmass in place through the remainder of
the work week, and daily highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast
with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. A series of weaker
disturbances will be embedded within the upper ridge, and will result
in daily low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. Models
show an upper low tracking over the northern Plains heading into the
weekend, and a cold front will push south through the Midwest and
into the mid MS River Valley. This system will result in an increase
in shower/storm chances (40-50%) Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mid/high clouds will continue to spread into the area from the SW,
maintaining VFR conds thru the TAF period. SE winds around 8-9kt
will also increase to 10-14kt with higher gusts this morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09