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000
FXUS63 KICT 250542
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible late tonight into early tomorrow
  morning. Severe weather is also possible tomorrow afternoon
  and evening, though there is some uncertainty in tomorrow
  afternoons activity.

- Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday
  afternoon/evening.

- Potentially significant severe weather anticipated on
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

As warm moist advection continues atop an 800-700mb baroclinic
zone, light showers will continue to try and develop through the
afternoon. CAPE is minimal, less than 300 J/kg at best through
early evening. Tonight, as enhanced moisture advection surges
into southern KS, more significant 850-300mb MUCAPE
(1500-2500J/kg) is progged along with 40-50kts of 1-6km bulk
shear and steep mid level lapse rates. Thus strong to severe
storms will be possible late tonight into tomorrow morning with
large hail (quarter to golf ball sized) being the main concern
along with isolated damaging wind gusts. As storms continue to
regenerate, some localized flooding concerns could develop.

Some solutions would suggest a line of storms/and or MCS may develop
toward morning along and east of a line from Russell/Lincoln
County to Harper County. We may remain grunged over on tomorrow as
storms continue to regenerate. An outflow boundary may result
from ongoing convection tomorrow which has the potential to
limit the otherwise warm front/warm sector from moving into the
area. In this scenario, the severe threat would be limited to
 elevated hailers primarily throughout the day. However, should
the outflow boundary be more weak or washed out from early
morning convection tomorrow, then the warm front/warm sector
would be able to move into the area increasing the risk for sfc
based storms. That said, the dryline is looking to set up across
far western KS/far eastern CO, and with ample CIN it could be
tough to initiate a sfc based storm across the CWA. However, any
sfc based storm would be capable of all severe hazards,
including storms that can survive the trek across western KS
into central KS. For now, the best guidance and local thinking
is the outflow scenario is most likely to play out.

With time, the pacific front/washed out dryline will push east into
central and south central KS, perhaps near/after 12z Friday morning.
Some model solutions show a nearly uncapped environment across
central and south central KS ahead of a PV anomaly. A similar
setup to last weeks convection which involved a couple brief AM
tornadoes amidst storm clusters looks to be in the cards, with
low level SRH of nearly 300 and 3CAPE of near 100 J/kg.

By Friday afternoon there could be time for a severe storm or two to
develop along and east of the Flint Hills, however it will be a race
against the large scale forcing for ascent which will be
starting to exit the area. While standard severe ingredients
appear to be in place, the dryline doesn`t look as sharp with
little in the way of sfc convergence to work with, aside from
perhaps a lingering boundaries from morning convection.

Saturday has the potential to bring significant severe weather
to the area. Of course there is plenty of time for the forecast
to change and there does remain some degree of uncertainty
particularly in storm mode. A sfc low in the vicinity of SW KS
is progged to deepen and move east/northeast potentially around
central/south central KS by peak heating. Moderate to strong
instability (2500-4000 J/kg) will combine with strong flow
(60kts+ bulks shear), nicely curved hodographs/strong LL SRH,
and strong 3CAPE (200j/kg). Any storm that can remain discrete
or even semi-discrete in this type of environment will pose
significant hazards from strong to potentially violent
tornadoes, large to very large (2-3+ inch) hail, and damaging
wind gusts.

The upper trough will move northeastward on Sunday, making way for a
warming trend as we go into the middle the next week. Quiet weather
will prevail at least until middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Aviation concerns will be storms this morning along with
lowering ceilings.

Showers and storms are expected to become more numerous
generally after 09z as mid level moisture transport ramps-up.
Locations along and especially east of I-135 will see the
greatest areal coverage. Some of this activity will likely
linger after 16z, especially across southeast KS(KCNU). Some
hail will be possible with the stronger storms this morning
along with brief heavy rain. Low cigs will also be on the
increase from the southwest this morning with IFR cigs expected
at KHUT-KICT in the 13-15z time frame and KRSL-KGBD by 15z. Once
cigs come down, they are expected to remain down through most
of the day.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...RBL