Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 200438
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Forecast Headline/Highlight:
Severe thunderstorms primarily with both large/very large hail and
damaging winds likely across south-central & southeast KS until
late this evening. A couple tornadoes are also possible.

Tonight:
This afternoon a SE-moving cold front was nearing the KS Turnpike.
The front is approaching a moisture-rich environment that combined
with sufficient heating, is causing rapid destabilization across
south-central & southeast KS. Severe thunderstorms are erupting
along the front from northern OK to southeast KS. At 3 PM CDT, the
front extended from south-central IA, to along the KS Turnpike, to
the western Red River. The front is being driven by a weak mid-
upper level shortwave that extends from central Nebraska to
central CO. With the shortwave shearing as it moves E/NE, the
front should decelerate this evening & perhaps stall as it
ventures into eastern & southern OK late tonight. This would
slowly shift the axis of strong & severe thunderstorms SE as the
night progresses. The mid-upper shortwave will couple with the sfc
front to promote increasing & deepening speed & directional shear
to trigger severe thunderstorms, especially along & southeast of
the turnpike. With the strengthening deep-layer shear, hail may
reach around 2 inches along with winds that may reach around 70
mph. There continues to be concern that a few tornadoes may form,
perhaps as far west as the turnpike. The front`s presence will
produce a fairly sharp NW-SE temperature gradient with lows from
around 50 at KRSL & KGBD to around 65 in southeast KS.

Sun & Sunday Night:
The decelerating front dictates increasing PoPs across southeast
KS, especially Sun morning. With the front decelerating, a few
showers & isolated thunderstorms may redevelop just south of the
OK state line Sunday night, so wouldn`t be surprised if slight
chance PoPs are assigned near the OK line on the next couple
forecasts.

Mon-Tue Night:
There should be a brief intermission from thunderstorms as a mid-
upper wave, which`ll deepen rapidly near the Pacific Coast Mon
Night, undergoes pronounced cyclogenesis early next week. This
would cause amplification of a mid-upper ridge over the Great
Plains. The mid-upper pattern deamplifies Tue & Tue night as a
shortwave ejects E/NE across the central Rockies. This may enable
a few thunderstorms to develop Tue night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Southwest mid/upper flow is progged to return as we move through
much of the upcoming week. This will help steer any subtle
shortwave troughs into the area bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms through much of the period. Above
normal temperatures are also expected with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Scattered showers and storms will continue affect southern and
southeast Kansas overnight, with activity lingering over
southeast Kansas into Sunday morning. Meanwhile low clouds in the
IFR/MVFR range will spread southward across the region overnight
and linger through the morning hours. The low clouds will begin to
scatter out with ceilings rising for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  73  58  82 /  30  20  10  10
Hutchinson      55  71  54  81 /  30  10   0  10
Newton          56  70  55  81 /  30  20  10  10
ElDorado        59  71  57  81 /  30  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   60  73  57  83 /  40  30  10  20
Russell         51  68  51  81 /  20   0   0  10
Great Bend      50  69  52  80 /  20   0   0  10
Salina          55  70  52  82 /  20   0  10  10
McPherson       55  70  53  81 /  30  10  10  10
Coffeyville     66  77  60  83 /  70  40  10  10
Chanute         64  75  58  82 /  50  30  10  10
Iola            64  75  58  81 /  40  30  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    65  77  60  83 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...CDJ


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