Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171950
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave over the Great Basin
approaching the Central Rockies. At the surface, stationary front
stretches from northern AR and across southern KS, with a dryline
extending through western OK.

Deep surface low is expected to quickly track from western KS
into northeast portions of the state tonight. This will spread
strong northwest winds across the forecast area generally after
10 pm with these strong winds expected to persist through most of
Wed. Went ahead and ran with a wind advisory for tonight through
Wed for areas along and west of I-135 to account for these strong
nw winds. Even though gradient will slacken during the day Wed,
good mixing should make up for it, allowing sustained speeds
around 30-35 mph with higher gusts. See fire weather section below
to see how these winds will elevate the fire danger.

Cold front is expected to push through all of the southern Plains
as surface ridge overspreads the region. This will allow for below
normal temps for both Thu and Fri with highs around 5 degrees
below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Main focus for these extended periods will be another strong
shortwave to move out into the Plains Fri night into Sat. GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement moving the impulse from the southern
Rockies into central/southern OK during the day Sat. While
confidence is high that most of the area will at least see some
rain, confidence is much lower with regards to who will pick up
the more substantial rainfall. Med range models have been slowly
trending south with this system which will be something to watch.
Severe chances don`t look too good, as we never get the rich
moisture this far north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  The main concern
this evening and tonight will be a wind shift to the west and
northwest, as a strong cold front pushes across the forecast area.
Expect the front to push into central KS by around 02-30z/Wed, with
the front pushing into south central KS, by around 05-06z.  After
the winds shift to the W-NW they will be become very gusty with some
gusts to 35 kts possible.

Ketcham


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Grassland fire danger will be elevated into the very high
category on Wed.

Surface winds are expected to flip around to the northwest from
west to east tonight and remain out of the northwest through the
day Wed. Sustained speeds both tonight into Wed will generally be
in the 25 to 35 mph range with the higher speeds along and west
of I-135. Lowest RH values on Wed are expected to be in the 25%
to 30% range with the lowest values west of I-135. These
conditions will result in very high grassland fire danger for the
entire area Wed with Russell and Barton counties on the upper end
of the very high scale.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  48  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      78  45  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          77  46  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        78  48  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   82  48  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76  42  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      78  42  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          76  43  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       77  44  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     77  51  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         77  50  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            76  50  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    76  50  66  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


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