Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1017 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 1014 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Latest satellite water vapor imagery shows main shortwave moving
into Az at this time, with a nice jet streak rounding the base of
this shortwave in srn NM.  Seeing increasing diffluence ahead of the
jet streak with showers and some embedded thunderstorms developing
underneath this diffluence over the panhandle of TX. Expect to see
this diffluence to continue shifting NE into the plains for the
afternoon hours.  As it pushes north, low level moisture and shower
chances will also push north as the warm advection increases.
Current forecast has a pretty good handle on the forecast trends,
with showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to move into srn KS
by around 21z, as elevated instability around 500 j/kg increases.

For later this evening, hi-res models continue to show that
convection will light up along the dryline, expected to be located
to the SW of the forecast area, over the panhandle of OK. Think this
development will by delayed until around 03z, until the better lift
from the main shortwave pushes into the TX panhandle. Still think a
few severe storms are possible across south central KS late this
evening, as the storms along the dryline lift NE into areas south of
ICT.  But as they lift north, think they will become elevated as
they move over the top of the warm frontal boundary expected to be
over srn KS.  Latest Nam/Wrf shows elevated instability of 1000-1200
J/KG with 40 kts of Bulk Shear for the late evening hours across
southern KS, with the better instability just south of the KS/OK
border. This will probably be sufficient for a few severe storms,
with quarter size hail the main concern.

Will send out a quick update to freshen up the forecast and grids.



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

East to southeast flow will take over the region today as a vigorous
low pressure system moves through.  Most of the new model runs
project the track of the system to move along the OK/KS state line
this afternoon and evening. This set up will bring in enough
moisture for a rather good cloud deck to form over the region which
will limit the heating over the region today. Lowered max
temperatures for today to compensate for the additional cloud cover.
The lower max temperature for today will also have an affect the
potential for severe weather over the region.  Low level lapse rates
will be hurt significantly by this change. However, mid and upper
level shear along with a strong low level jet will keep the chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the region today.  As such, can`t
rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm during the evening and
overnight hours. Wind appears to be the greatest severe weather
threat however, the upper level lapse rates and a pronounced 500mb
cold pool does raise the specter of some isolated severe hail with
the strongest storms. It appears the best chance for the severe hail
will be with the passage of this 500mb cold pool and its attendant
vorticity max along with plenty of mid level forcing as the low
passes.  Finally, an upper level jet core will be passing to the
south of the region placing the bulk of the CWA in a prime location
for strong upper level divergence support to any thunderstorms that
are present at the time.  The timing of the upper low`s passage
looks to be late evening into the overnight hours. As such, the
potential for isolated severe thunderstorms looks to extend into the
overnight time frame.

By Monday, the low pressure system will have passed and the wind
flow will turn around to the north once again.  Temps will tumble
below normal for this time of year for a day as the skies clear.
Tuesday will rebound a little a but temps will stay near normal with
light northerly winds.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The extended range will be marked by a gradual warm up and will
likely show an increase in moisture as well.  The Gulf of Mexico
looks to finally open up for an extended period of time starting on
Wednesday afternoon.  This return flow will be sustained through
Friday as the next significant weather system looks to encroach on
the region.  Long range models are mixed on the timing and track but
nearly all agree this set up will allow for a nice warm up with
Friday looking to be the warmest day.  This warm up will be
accompanied by increasing winds as well as the pressure gradient
tightens up ahead of the next system.  The big question for this
next system will be its track as it will influence the rain
potential for Friday evening and into Saturday.



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Deteriorating conditions are expected thru the forecast valid
period as a vigorous low pressure area moves into the region.
MVFR cigs are expected by the afternoon, lowering through IFR
tonight with some LIFR possible. Scattered to numerous rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also expected by late
afternoon and especially tonight with reduced vsby. Winds will
also increase a bit around the cyclonic flow of the approaching



Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Due to the drop in the expected max temperature for day and the
additional cloud cover, fire danger looks to be held in check
through the next few days.  Depending on how much rain is received
as well, we could finally see a quick green up as many of the native
grasses will likely take advantage of the added moisture if enough
rain is received,  This will likely affect the curing and could
lower the current extended range Grassland Fire Danger Indices for
the end of the week which are currently expected to be in the very
high category at this time.  This is likely to change depending on
how much rain is received over the next 24-36 hours.



Wichita-KICT    59  43  50  35 /  50  90  60  30
Hutchinson      58  42  48  33 /  40  90  70  30
Newton          58  42  48  33 /  40  90  70  30
ElDorado        59  44  50  35 /  50  90  60  30
Winfield-KWLD   60  44  52  36 /  60  80  40  20
Russell         58  40  45  30 /  20  90  80  30
Great Bend      57  41  45  30 /  20  90  70  30
Salina          59  42  48  33 /  30  90  80  40
McPherson       58  41  47  33 /  30  90  80  40
Coffeyville     63  46  58  38 /  80  80  40  30
Chanute         61  45  53  37 /  50  90  60  30
Iola            60  44  52  36 /  50  90  70  30
Parsons-KPPF    62  46  56  38 /  70  90  50  30




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