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000
FXUS63 KICT 122333
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warming trend through the weekend

* Fire danger concerns Saturday and Monday through Thursday across
  central KS

* Confidence is increasing for a severe weather event Monday
  evening/night, possibly significant

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

As of 215pm Friday afternoon, midlevel ridging was building into the
central Plains with a shortwave trough advancing through the OH
valley. At the surface, an area of high pressure was situated across
eastern KS. On the western periphery of the high, southerly low-
level flow has resumed across central and western KS. All in all, a
delightful spring afternoon ongoing with temperatures near 70.

The upward trend in temperature will continue throughout the weekend
as the midlevel ridge overspreads the region. Temperatures Saturday
will surge into the 80s as gusty south wind increase to near 35 mph.
An even warmer afternoon is forecast Sunday with highs nearing the
90 degree mark. A weak shortwave trough is poised to traverse the
state early Sunday, shunting a weak surface trough axis towards the
forecast area. This will shunt the tightest pressure gradient
southeast of the forecast area, giving a brief reprieve from gusty
winds.

Our attention continues to be drawn toward another potent midlevel
trough poised to eject into the Plains early next week. Latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance have further aligned with a more-
ominous scenario Monday evening into Monday night. With the event
remaining 4 days away, it`s too early to dive into the details quite
yet. That being said, the EPS, GEFS, and SREF all depict the highest
probabilities for a severe storms (possibly significant) across
portions of west-central KS and southward into portions of northern
OK. This zone correlates to areas west of Interstate 135, east of
Highway 283, and south of Interstate 70. Again, it`s too early to
dive into specifics but the ingredients appear to be aligning for a
severe weather episode Monday evening/Monday. We encourage you to
continue to check back throughout the weekend for additional detail
and forecast refinements.

Beyond Monday, the Pacific front will sweep across the forecast area
early Tuesday, likely setting the stage for additional storms just
east of the area. Midlevel ridging will build across the southwest
US through midweek with northwesterly flow across the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Little to no concerns are expected through the first 10 to 12
hours of the TAF period tonight into early Saturday morning. By
10-12Z Saturday morning a brief period of marginal LLWS may
impact TAF sites area wide as the LLJ strengthens. After 15Z,
surface winds will begin to increase. South winds sustained
around 15 to 20 knots are expected with gusts around 30-35 knots
possible through the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Saturday: Very high fire danger is expected along and west of I-135
during the afternoon. Southerly winds sustained between 20-30 mph
with gusts near 35 mph will overlap with humidity values in the 15-
25 percent range.

Monday through Thursday: A period of very high to extreme fire
danger is expected as gusty south winds up to 35 mph overlap
afternoon humidity values in the 15-25 percent range each
afternoon. As previously mentioned, the area of most concern
will remain west of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...BMB