Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161721
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley area tonight is
progged to continue moving eastward toward the Great Lakes area
through today. Meanwhile, a mid/upper ridge over the Rockies will
amplify as it develops eastward. Light and variable winds can be
expected across much of eastern Kansas while breezy southeast winds
return to central and western Kansas. This will help boost
temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the area today.

As surface high pressure translates eastward away from the area
tonight, southeast winds will return across the forecast area
resulting in more seasonable lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Tue-Wed...The H85 thermal ridge over the Southern High Plains is
progged to expand north and east across the Central Plains on
Tuesday helping to drive temperatures above normal once again but
this will be short-lived as a progressive shortwave trough emerging
from the Rockies will drive a cold front south across the area on
Tuesday night sending temperatures back to normal on Wed with highs
in upper 60s. Strong northwest winds are anticipated with deep
mixing/subsidence on the southern periphery of the shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward across
the Great Plains on Thu with seasonable temperatures and dry weather
conditions. The next storm system is progged to emerge from the
Rockies late Fri-Sun bringing widespread precipitation to the area.
There appears to be reasonable agreement on the large scale
evolution between the Canadian/GFS and ECMWF while the EMC GEFS
plumes indicate mean precipitation between 1-2 inches across much of
the forecast area. Pops were raised late Fri into Sat as confidence
in widespread rainfall increases.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Surface ridge will move east of the area later today. Warm front
develops tonight and lifts north with a gradual veering of the
wind. Still a weak signal for moistening in the 1500-2500ft AGL
layer just north of front, but confidence is low and opted to go
with SCT015 for now. Winds will increase, either very late in
this forecast, or more likely after 1800 UTC. -Howerton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Breezy southerly winds and minimum relative humidities in the mid
and upper 20s will create a very high grassland fire danger across
much of central and south central KS on Tue. A cold front will
bring gusty northwest winds on Wed and although temperatures will
only rise into the 60s, a very high grassland fire danger is
expected once again with minimum relative humidities falling into
the low to mid 20s. An approaching storm system will bring
increasing chances for more widespread precipitation and
decreasing fire weather concerns late in the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      59  38  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          60  40  80  45 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        61  42  81  48 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   63  44  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         57  36  75  40 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      59  38  78  43 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          57  37  77  43 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       57  39  79  44 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     60  41  79  52 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         59  39  78  50 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            58  39  77  50 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    59  41  78  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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