Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 142314
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
614 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Tonight:
Low will continue to slowly exit the region, but appears that low
level moisture will linger for much of the night. Will linger
precipitation along northeast border this evening. Rates have
fallen and most is melting fairly quickly, so will drop the winter
weather advisory. Cannot rule out a flurry or two in far northeast
sections well into the night, but given impact and probability,
not worth a mention later in the night. Anticipate low clouds
should help offset the cold air advection. Some clearing possible
in far towards daybreak. With surface pressure gradient
potentially tightening very slightly this evening, will extend the
wind advisory through midnight. Will allow the high wind warning
to expire on schedule and be followed up with a wind advisory.

Sunday-Sunday night:
It will be a bit warmer due to less clouds, more insolation and
loss of cold air advection, but temperatures will still below
normal. Surface ridge move across the area during the night, so a
very cold night is in store for the area.

Monday-Tuesday:
Weak return flow develops on Monday with temperatures continuing
to increase. By Monday night, warm front develops just southwest
of forecast area, and will be close to the OK border at daybreak
Tuesday. Stratus and possibly fog are expected just north of the
front. The front will continue to lift north throughout the day as
surface low pressure develops and deepens in western KS. Some
discrepancy on exactly where the warm front will be in the
afternoon, but the southern sections of forecast area definitely
look warmer than the initialization grids. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Slightly cooler air moves in on Wednesday, but downslope flow
should moderate residual cold air advection behind the cold front.
If full mixing is realized, temperatures could be into the lower
70s across western third of forecast area. Upper ridge moves
through on Thursday with next system approaching on Friday and
Saturday. South fetch should allow moisture to return and provide
a good chance for rain over the entire area. Still some fairly
significant discrepancies on timing and how surface features will
evolve. These will heavily impact temperatures and timing of
precipitation across the area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Occasional MVFR cigs will linger across the area on the back
side of the deep low pressure as it pulls off very slowly to the
east tonight through early Sunday. Northwest winds will remain
strong this evening, only gradually subsiding during the day on
Sunday. Scattered snow flurries or light snow showers will affect
north central and northeast Kansas this evening.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Increasing south winds will lead to very high to extreme GFDI
values over most areas on Tuesday, with the greatest threat in far
southwest sections. Very high GFDI values should linger into
Wednesday due to stiff northwest winds in wake of the front.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  49  25  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      24  49  23  62 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          23  46  22  61 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        24  46  24  61 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   24  50  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         19  48  20  62 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      21  50  22  63 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          23  45  22  61 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       23  46  21  61 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     27  48  26  60 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         27  45  25  58 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            27  43  25  58 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    28  46  25  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ049-051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ032-033-047-048-
050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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