Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190429
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1129 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Compact upper low is currently spinning over northeast IA with a
surface low approaching the Ohio Valley. On the backside of this
system, strong northwest winds are in place across the central and
southern Plains.

Surface ridge will continue to slide east tonight and will finally
bring a drastic decrease to our winds. Temps on Thu will be fairly
similar to where they are now, but with much less wind which will
make it much more comfortable. Attention will then turn to our
next upper low which is currently approaching the CA coast.

This feature is expected to continue quickly tracking east and
will be situated over the Four Corners region by Fri afternoon.
Should see temps a few degrees warmer then Thu as we do get into
some return flow. There is still fairly decent model agreement
between the ECMWF and GFS in the track of this system with it
moving out across southeast CO/OK Panhandle by around 12z Sat.
Upper low will then continue to push off to the southeast which
will place much of the forecast area in the wrap around region of
this system. So not looking at much in the way of convection but
much of the area should at least see some rain. How much rainfall
is going to be the difficult part of the forecast over the next
few days. We really don`t get into a prolonged period of return
flow which will limit the potential for heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Confidence in these extended periods is extremely low due to
significant differences in the medium range models.

What`s left of the showers should be coming to an end across
southeast KS Sat night into Sun. While both the GFS and ECMWF try
and take some energy out of the northern Rockies and out into the
northern Plains for Mon, the GFS is quite a bit faster moving it
east compared to the ECMWF. This results in the GFS pushing a cold
front through the forecast area Mon night into Tue with the ECMWF
moving it through about 24 hours later. This leads to very low
confidence with regards to rain chances. About the only thing we
can say with confidence through these periods, is that we are not
looking at any kind of prolonged period of warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Skies are expected to remain mostly clear for the remainder of
tonight and through the day tomorrow. Northerly winds will
prevail during most of the day before shifting to a more easterly
direction around 00Z, though speeds are expected to be fairly
light throughout the period. Confidence is high that VFR
conditions will prevail through Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

For the first time in a while, we are not looking at any fire
danger concerns over the next several days.

Surface high pressure will slide over the area tonight into Thu
and will finally bring some lighter winds to the entire area.
Winds will flip around to the southeast on Fri but will generally
remain in the 10 to 15 mph range. Rain chances are still expected
to increase for Sat with a good chance that much of the area will
see some rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      33  63  37  63 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          32  61  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        32  61  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   33  65  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         30  63  37  63 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      31  63  38  62 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          31  61  36  65 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       31  62  36  63 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     33  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         32  59  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            31  59  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    32  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


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