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000
FXUS63 KICT 181937
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stepping back a month with a March-like feel thru the weekend
  with only spotty light rain chances.

- Warming trend closer to late April climo early next week.

- Better Spring-like convective chances by Day 7/Thursday and
  beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A rather coolish weather pattern will prevail through the
weekend with temperatures well below climo. Low level cold
advection will continue tonight as surface ridge builds into the
area. Likewise, north winds will diminish as well with advisory
probably able to be cancelled at 4 pm expiration this afternoon.
While some patchy frost is possible early Friday morning, there
will probably be enough wind/mixing in southern Kansas and some
increase in clouds in central Kansas to stave off widespread
need for an advisory. Weak perturbations moving through the
westerly flow aloft on Friday into Saturday will ripple along
the mid-level baroclinic zone which will sag slowly southward
across the central Plains. While the low levels will remain
relatively dry, some downward saturation with lift from a second
impulse late Friday night into Saturday associated with a weak
secondary low level/surface cold front may allow for some
scattered light rain across parts of the area. Some moderation
in temperatures with more sunshine is expected on Sunday.

Temperatures look to warm closer to and slightly above climo
through early next week. The medium range shows an upper trof
dropping southeastward from far southern B.C./Alberta across the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest with the associated surface cold
front moving thru Kansas Monday night/Tuesday. Modest moisture
return supports similar PoP chances. There may be better
chances for more organized precip/convection toward the end of
next week. However, timing details/chances seem to hinge on the
potential phasing of a southern stream upper low/trof over the
eastern Pacific. The GFS is quicker to do so, with said trof
affecting the central Plains/Kansas by Thursday. Even so, the
GFS/ECMWF both suggest a more active pattern with a reloading
western conus upper low/trof scenario ejecting periodic
shortwaves into the Plains beyond Day 7.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Surface cold front has almost shifted east of southeast Kansas
by early afternoon. Meanwhile in the wake of the cold front low
clouds(MVFR category) will blanket the area and clear out from
central Kansas early this afternoon with the clearing reaching
southeast Kansas by this evening. Gusty north winds will
diminish around sunset and shift to the northeast overnight with
mostly clear skies. Some mid-level clouds will build over the
area tonight with VFR conditions expected tonight and Friday
morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...CDJ