Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250451
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a vigorous shortwave in the wrn
Dakotas. Mid level lift associated with the cold pool and increasing
isentropic ascent along a frontal boundary ahead of the system has
led to showers developing across much of NW KS. Expect this area of
showers to slowly shift east-southeast into the evening hours,
initially overspreading central KS, and eventually dropping into
south central KS as the shortwave drops SE over KS. As the late
evening progresses, a mid level baroclinic zone drops southeast
across south central KS, which will enhance the precip potential
across southern KS, increasing the rainfall rates. Latest QPF
suggests that some areas may pick up a half an inch of rainfall by
Wed morning, especially for areas between highway 50 and highway 54.
So plan on increasing pops for most of the region for this evening
and overnight as the system sweeps southeast. Short range models do
not show alot of elevated instability, but given the strong lift
associated with the system, will keep an isolated thunder wording in
as well.

The shortwave will be slow to move across SE KS early on Wed, with
some lingering showers for areas east of the KS Turnpike, as the
main shortwave and cold pol slowly moves across srn KS. With all the
showers and cloud cover, max temps will struggles to climb out of
the middle 50s on Wed.

The next shortwave is right on the heels of tonights, (currently
located along the coast of British Columbia), and will drop SE into
the plains by Thu.  This next shortwave will trek southeast across
the plains, but current model trends suggest this system will come
through a little further to the NE. Current model solutions do not
show as much moisture available, as this shortwave pushes south, but
think some areas will pick up another shot of showers, especially
for areas east of the KS Turnpike by Thu afternoon/evening.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Mid level ridging looks to move across the region for the end of the
week into the weekend.  As this ridge moves over the area, southerly
winds will return to the area with a warming trend expected for the
weekend with dry conditions.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings are likely at all sites later
tonight as good diffluence ahead of upper low continues to spread
rain over the area through daybreak. Conditions will likely be
slow to improve until upper low moves east of the area, with some
improvement at KRSL/KGBD on Wednesday afternoon. Note that
ceilometer has stopped reporting at KGBD, so amendments for sky
cover are unlikely. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the region for the next
several days due to more expected rainfall and lighter wind speeds.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  56  41  67 /  90  70  10  10
Hutchinson      44  54  38  67 /  90  70  10  10
Newton          45  54  39  65 /  90  80  10  10
ElDorado        46  55  41  66 /  90  80  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   47  57  41  67 /  90  90  10  10
Russell         41  56  36  65 /  70  40   0  20
Great Bend      41  55  36  65 /  90  40   0  10
Salina          45  54  38  67 /  90  80  10  20
McPherson       44  54  38  66 /  90  70  10  10
Coffeyville     52  58  45  68 /  90  90  40  10
Chanute         51  57  43  67 /  90  90  40  20
Iola            51  56  42  67 /  90  90  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    51  58  44  67 /  90  90  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham


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