Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181158
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

The deep surface low over eastern Kansas early this morning is
progged to race eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley area
today. Gusty northwest winds will be left in it`s wake with speeds
of 30 to 40 mph common across much of south central and central KS
with steep low level lapse rates and relatively deep vertical
mixing. Winds may begin to diminish a bit as we move through the
afternoon hours. High temperature were trended down a bit with
most locations seeing highs in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure will settle south across the Northern and Central
Plains states tonight allowing for some radiational cooling and
patchy frost toward morning across much of the area. Low
temperatures were trended down with lows expected to range from
around 30 to 35 in most locations. We may get close to a record at
both KCNU and KICT but the current forecast remains 2-3 degrees
above the record value.

Thu-Fri...a mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward across
the Central Conus through the period with southerly flow returning
by Thu. This will lead to seasonable temperatures through the period
with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. A
more robust mid/upper trough will move into the Rockies late on
Friday bringing increasing chances for showers Fri night into much
of western and portions of central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Widespread showers are anticipated at the beginning of the period
as a mid/upper trough emerges from the Rockies and propagates
slowly eastward across the Southern/Central Plains states. Some of
the recent southward trends in the track of the system have eased
back north resulting in higher confidence in more widespread
wetting rains across much of the area. Clouds and precipitation
will keep temperatures below normal with highs in the 50s-60s and
lows in the 40s. As this system moves east of the area on Sunday
another progressive shortwave trough may dig southeast across the
area bringing additional chances for precipitation toward the end
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

There are 2 concerns:
1) NW winds sustained from 22-30kts with 35-40kt gusts & 2) SCT to
BKN decks 2,500-3,000ft early this morning.

A weakening, but still fairly strong sfc low that at issuance was
centered just E of KMCI is operating in tandem with an inverted
ridge punching SE from the Nrn Rockies. This would produce strong
NW winds across KS with the strongest winds occurring across C &
SC KS for most of the day. The strong NW flow will also spread SCT
to BKN decks across KS with parts of C KS possibly experiencing
MVFR cigs. The cigs will however lift above 3,000ft late this
morning. The NW winds will diminish quickly ~19/00Z with all areas
under 10kts by 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Gusty northwest winds will drive the grassland fire danger into
the very high category across all of the area today. As we look
ahead to the remainder of the forecast, fire weather concerns are
expected to remain limited with widespread soaking rains late
Fri-Sat night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  35  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      64  33  62  38 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          62  32  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        62  32  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   66  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         63  34  61  37 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      64  33  62  38 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          61  31  61  36 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       63  32  61  37 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     66  33  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         61  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            60  31  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    64  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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