Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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763
FXUS63 KICT 211942
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning over north
central/nw OK with a surface low down over central TX. Strong
upper diffluence has allowed showers to persist for areas
generally along and east of I-135 today.

Upper low will continue to slowly track east tonight into Sun
morning and by 12z Sun will be situated over far ne OK/nw AR. Even
though low will shift east, precip over eastern KS should continue
to lift north and eventually back to the west as the low passes to
the south. So will keep categorical pops in this evening for areas
generally east of I-135. Not expecting much in the way of thunder
as the better instability stays south. Areas generally along and
west of I-135 should stay dry tomorrow with scattered showers
expected to linger over southeast KS through most of the day,
coming to an end during the early evening hours.

GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the impulse
expected to dive out of the northern Rockies and into the high
Plains by Mon night. The GFS has come around to the ECMWF in
taking more of this energy further west which should result in
some sct showers and isolated thunder during the day Tue as the
front pushes through.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Medium range models continue to show another piece of energy
diving out of southern Canada and into the northern Plains by Thu.
There is some fairly significant differences between the models,
with the ECMWF taking much more energy west compared to the GFS
which results in the ECMWF generating precip Thu into Thu night.
Meanwhile, the GFS takes this wave into the Mid Mississippi
Valley. One thing that is for certain is that another cold front
will move through the area by late Thu night which will keep us
from getting into a warming trend and will also keep the better
moisture well south of the area. So severe storm chances the next
several days look low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Main Aviation Hazard: IFR stratus

The most widespread rain is expected to persist across eastern
Kansas this afternoon/evening, then southeast Kansas late tonight
into Sunday morning, as the upper low over the Southern High
Plains migrates slowly east-southeastward.

IFR stratus presently across western/central Kansas is expected to
develop southeastward across south-central and southeast Kansas
through tonight into Sunday morning, as high boundary layer
moisture concentrates within an inverted low-level surface trough
axis. Forecast confidence is high in this regard.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Fire danger concerns will remain minimal through the next several
days.

For the first time in weeks, all of the area received some decent
rainfall which should help grasses green up a bit. A series of
cold fronts will allow near or below normal temps to remain in
place through the next 7 days. Northeast winds in the 10 to 15
mph range will be in place area wide for Sun and Mon and will turn
to the northwest for Tue, but will remain relatively light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  43  59  46 / 100  70  20  10
Hutchinson      48  42  60  44 /  90  60  10   0
Newton          48  43  59  44 / 100  70  20  10
ElDorado        50  43  58  45 / 100  90  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   51  45  59  46 / 100  90  20  10
Russell         46  38  61  41 /  80  40   0   0
Great Bend      46  39  60  41 /  80  40  10   0
Salina          49  41  59  44 /  90  60  10  10
McPherson       48  42  60  43 /  90  60  10  10
Coffeyville     56  48  60  48 / 100 100  60  20
Chanute         56  46  59  47 /  80 100  50  30
Iola            58  46  58  47 /  80 100  50  20
Parsons-KPPF    56  47  60  48 /  90 100  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...RBL



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